Hello everyone my name is Derek Sabato and I’ve finally returned to writing this column. Taking a long break from writing (and betting) is something that’s necessary. There’s always a time where you feel you’ve run right into a wall and need to take a step back. My step back time was the Super Bowl but with taking a break and reevaluating how you’re looking at and picking games is something that is good for the brain.
[adinserter name=”366 right”]Now onto the picks and the games on May 3rd, 2012. The first pick is from the NBA Playoffs. Miami being a 5 point favorite against the now Amare-less New York Knicks is something I can get behind. I’m not a huge Miami Heat fan (in reality my distaste for LeBron James is legendary) but the Knicks are done and broken. Short of Carmelo Anthony being cloned they can’t keep in a game with the Heat. The Heat are 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 5 points of more in playoff games and 5-1 as a favorite in their last 6. Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a 5 point underdog. I expect the Heat to win by double digits. Laying $110 to win $100.
For the NHL Playoffs I’m being a homer but I have to be. If I can get the Philadelphia Flyers as an underdog which they are now I’m going to take them all day. As an underdog the Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 games and in playoff games where they’re the underdog they’re also 4-1. Including the Game 2 victory for the Devils they’re 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the Atlantic Division.
Obviously Martin Broduer looked like a stud when he only had 1 shot to face in the 2nd period and the Flyers fell apart defensively. I don’t see this being a situation where they lose two in a row. Peter Laviolette will not let this team get down 2-1 and the players reactions to the way they played in Game 2 tells me they turn it around. Laying $100 to win $102.
In Major League Baseball the Marlins & Giants are facing off in an afternoon game in San Francisco. Weather is never a good thing in the early part of May in San Francisco and normally the wind is blowing in. Also with Anibal Sanchez (2.73 ERA) and Ryan Vogelsong (4.19 ERA) throwing; the ERA of Vogelsong is high but it’s still going to be under 7 which is what the O/U is as of this writing. The under with the Marlins on the road has hit 7 straight times and Vogelsong’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record is 8-1 to the under. Last 5 meetings they’ve had in San Francisco the under is 4-1. Laying $55 to win $50.
[adinserter name=”366 left”]Any questions or comments can be made to my Twitter account @DerekSabato or e-mail me at [email protected].Don’t forget to check out CHIKARAPro.com for updates and the CHIKARA YouTube channel for updates on everything going forward.