Hello everyone my name is Derek Sabato and I’ve finally returned to writing this column. Taking a long break from writing (and betting) is something that’s necessary. There’s always a time where you feel you’ve run right into a wall and need to take a step back. My step back time was the Super Bowl but with taking a break and reevaluating how you’re looking at and picking games is something that is good for the brain.

Now onto the picks and the games on May 3rd, 2012. The first pick is from the NBA Playoffs. Miami being a 5 point favorite against the now Amare-less New York Knicks is something I can get behind. I’m not a huge Miami Heat fan (in reality my distaste for LeBron James is legendary) but the Knicks are done and broken. Short of Carmelo Anthony being cloned they can’t keep in a game with the Heat. The Heat are 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 5 points of more in playoff games and 5-1 as a favorite in their last 6. Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a 5 point underdog. I expect the Heat to win by double digits. Laying $110 to win $100.

For the NHL Playoffs I’m being a homer but I have to be. If I can get the Philadelphia Flyers as an underdog which they are now I’m going to take them all day. As an underdog the Flyers are 4-1 in their last 5 games and in playoff games where they’re the underdog they’re also 4-1. Including the Game 2 victory for the Devils they’re 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the Atlantic Division.

Obviously Martin Broduer looked like a stud when he only had 1 shot to face in the 2nd period and the Flyers fell apart defensively. I don’t see this being a situation where they lose two in a row. Peter Laviolette will not let this team get down 2-1 and the players reactions to the way they played in Game 2 tells me they turn it around. Laying $100 to win $102.

In Major League Baseball the Marlins & Giants are facing off in an afternoon game in San Francisco. Weather is never a good thing in the early part of May in San Francisco and normally the wind is blowing in. Also with Anibal Sanchez (2.73 ERA) and Ryan Vogelsong (4.19 ERA) throwing; the ERA of Vogelsong is high but it’s still going to be under 7 which is what the O/U is as of this writing. The under with the Marlins on the road has hit 7 straight times and Vogelsong’s last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record is 8-1 to the under. Last 5 meetings they’ve had in San Francisco the under is 4-1. Laying $55 to win $50.

Any questions or comments can be made to my Twitter account @DerekSabato or e-mail me at [email protected].Don’t forget to check out CHIKARAPro.com for updates and the CHIKARA YouTube channel for updates on everything going forward.

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