Major League Baseball

The Sports Betting Edge For May 4, 2012

stephen strasburgHello everyone and welcome back to the 2nd edition of The Betting Edge. Today’s picks are for tonight obviously. Below are the results and at the end of the column will be the year to date records with a total figure for each sport.

5/3/12 Results:
MLB: Miami Marlins – San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 (WIN – FINAL SCORE: MARLINS 3 GIANTS 2) +50
NHL: Philadelphia Flyers +102 (LOSS – FINAL SCORE: DEVILS 4 FLYERS 3) – 100
NBA: Miami Heat – 5 (WIN – FINAL SCORE: HEAT 87 KNICKS 70) +100

We’re starting where we started at yesterday with the NBA Playoffs. Being local to the Philadelphia area it’s been quite an interesting ride with the 76ers this year. I’ve watched a lot of people jump on their bandwagon when they got off to their hot start early in the year when they were playing high school basketball teams. When they hit the meat of their schedule it was obvious right away they were a tier (or two) below the top echelon of NBA teams. Nothing’s been more obvious then that as the way they played towards the end of the season.

Now with Derrick Rose out many people are assuming the Bulls will lay down and die. Nothing could be farther from the truth as the team excelled with and without Rose. Obviously the shock of losing him and playing a day later didn’t really have the team gelling as well as they had shown they had the ability to do this year.

The 76ers leading scorer sadly is still Lou Williams; the same Lou Williams would be maybe a 6th man on a decent team (exactly his current role on the 76ers.) Now the Bulls are 2 point underdogs going into Philly where the Wells Fargo Center has not been kind to the 76ers. The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite…and 0-5 in general in their last 5 home games. The Bulls are 4-1 in their last 5 ATS and 3-1-1 following an ATS loss. Take the Bulls +2 laying $55 to win $50.

I have to go back to being a homer through after going against a Philadelphia team. In baseball the Phillies are facing the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. Here’s a weird concept…betting on the Phillies and against Strasburg…even with Kyle Kendrick pitching. The Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 road games against a right-handed starter.

The Phillies have looked better as of late (not counting the Roy Halladay/bullpen meltdown) and the great news is Papelbon is on 2 days rest so he’ll be well rested if it comes down to the Phillies in the 9th inning with a lead. The Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 1-5 in their last 6 games overall. The Phillies are a big underdog at +194 so I’m laying $100 to win $194.

The only NHL game tonight is Phoenix at Nashville. I really only recommended betting when there is value and I don’t see any value whatsoever in this game. Coyotes are +145 underdog and Nashville is -157 favorite. I don’t see the Coyotes winning and I don’t want to lay $157 in case they’re able to defeat the Predators. Sometimes the best bet you can make is not making a bet at all. Forcing a bet with no value is an easy way to lose money and get you to chase the dragon.

That’s all for now. I’ll have a Saturday & Sunday edition up early Saturday with very early lines. Make sure to hop on that action Saturday morning as the lines are sure to shift by Saturday night/Sunday morning. Included might be some Boxing/MMA picks as well.

MLB: 1-0 (+50)
NHL: 0-1 (-100)
NBA: 1-0 (+100)

Total profit: $50

You can contact me on Twitter and follow me @DerekSabato or e-mail me at Gambling horror stories (sports/poker/anything) are always fun to read and if you have an interesting enough story I would love to post it on here along with some stories I’ll be telling in future columns.
And as always…Good luck!

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