I had a guy in my cab yesterday that worked in forensic accounting. For those of you who don’t know what that is (like me before I picked him up @ Grand Central) what these guys do is find the hidden income of wealthy individuals or corporations by examining their books and ID’ing the trouble signs. It’s kind of like body language experts who can tell a person is lying by the way their eyes look to the left when they’re talking. Forensic accountants are masters at the body language of accounting. This guy worked on Enron and he is now involved in determining who gets paid out in the Bernie Madoff sweepstakes. Fascinating conversation but based on the tip it’s safe to say he hasn’t kept too much of the hidden money for himself.
Luckily I won’t need it this week because after a playoff run in which I went 9-1 for all of you unappreciative assbags (hello talk radio host Mike Bower) I have done the forensic accounting of Super Bowl XLIV and found out where the money is being hidden. Literally hidden! And not just in this game but in every Super Bowl to come! I’m serious.
Placing equal bets also accentuates a winning record by ensuring that you get paid. Sadly, to most people who bet football having a winning record rarely equates to making money. Think about it. How many times have you gone 5-2 in a weekend and lost money because you bet the five wins for a hundo and the two losses for a nickel and a dime. It’s maddening! You have to bet them all the same. People who bet in varying increments are a bookies dream!!! Even if it works for you on a small sample of games over the course of time “betting the big game” has a way turning your bank roll into the last shot of Steve Buscemi in Fargo. I cannot stress this enough. If you are seriously trying to gamble and come out ahead you must bet them all the same.
The Super Bowl is no different. If you’re gonna bet it every year you have to employ the same type of strategy. Mine, without further ado, is this. Bet the underdog in the Super Bowl to win the game outright every single year for the rest of my life. Tha’s right, forget the spread and bet The Saints +180 to win the game! A five hundred dollar bet will pay you nine hundred american bucks!
A lot of people will want to know why. Is it the limited mobility of Freeney, then the “remember me” hits of the Saints D? Maybe someone has finally found a way to confuse Peyton Manning by changing the name of the Stadium every other possession. Nope it’s bigger than all that. It’s not about pass rushers, or average starting field position it’s about FORENSIC ACCOUNTING.
I know at first it sounds highly implausible that their could be money hidden on the most heavily bet game in the universe but when you look at the money line in this game for a few minutes you wind up having a Robert Langdon moment where you decipher a hidden code.
Here is the deal: the team favored to win the Super Bowl has won the game 32 times in 43 tries (75%) so on the surface it would seem simple to bet the favorite on the money line every single year because you’re going to win 75% of the time. But if you look a little deeper you’ll see the trouble signs.
Although favorites win the Super Bowl (without the spread) 75% of the time they are usually doing so at a money line that is extremely high. (avg. price for the 43 favorites is around -500 which means for every hundred you win on a Super Bowl favorite, you lose five!! This year the Colts are laying -210 which means a hundred on the colts will cost you 210 if you lose. (It’s really not bad when you consider a hundred on the COLTS in Super Bowl III would have lost you $1600!!!!!) If you bet the Saints for a hundo it would pay you 180. If you lost it you’d only be out that same hundo and there in lays the value.
Since Super Bowl I betting the underdog on the money line for a five hundred a game would give you a won lost record of 11 wins and 32 losses but you’d be up eleven thousand five hundred dollars. Don’t get me wrong there’d be a ton of games you didn’t like (’94 Chargers over the Niners comes to mind) but if you stuck it out with this strategy you are bound to get paid. Just don’t count on winning the bet every year (or every three years for that matter). The dog wins the game outright slightly better than once every 4 years. I know this sounds boring and reserved but if you want to make money that’s exactly what you need to be.
….As far as betting the game on an individual basis I think the Colts are going to destroy them for some reason. The only thing scaring me is that everybody I talk to feels the same way. If I was going one game I would lay the 210 and bet the Colts simply to win the game. Unfortunately or fortunately I have pretty good discipline so I will stick to the money line strategy that I’ve employed since the year 2000. (3-7, up $2500).
If you really plan on betting the Super Bowl every year I have a strategy that cannot lose over the course of time.
Why you ask? Is it because of the limited mobility of Dwight Freeney or the turnover inducing the “remember me” hits of their defense? Is Reggie Wayne’s knee really that bad? Has the ever changing name of the Dolphins Stadium confused Peyton Manning?
Jimmy Failla can be reached at [email protected] or the Ann Service Taxi Dispatch on w’ 21st street because he’s making something of his life. Honest.
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