While the fantasy football 2011 may be over, the 2012 season is right around the corner. It is never too early to start looking ahead at next year’s draft, especially if you have keeper concerns. While it is always important to identify studs and sleepers, it may be even more important to identify the busts.
Look I’ll be frank and tell you that looking at next season in February before the draft and free agency is entirely premature. However, there are some situations that already have given me cause for concern. Yet what I wanted to do today is take a look at five fantasy football players at different positions that will likely be taken in the early rounds of your draft. Drafting a bust with your first or second pick is something hard to recover from. That is why I want you to think hard before you draft any of these five highly ranked players.
[ad 6]Rob Gronkowski, Tight End – I own Gronk in a keeper league and I am facing a serious dilemma. Do I waste a keeper spot on a tight end or do I throw one of the biggest scoring machines back into the pool? I am throwing back and here is why. Most important is the fact that the Patriots have a new offensive coordinator. Can you ever tell me about a Josh McDaniels’ offense that featured a tight end? I can’t remember any. Plus, defenses are going to do everything they can to scheme for Gronkowski. Receivers and running backs will benefit off of Gronk’s double teams and guess what? The guy can’t stay healthy. He missed games this season and is in jeopardy of missing the Super Bowl. Maybe I am wrong but I just see big bust written all over him.
Cam Newton, Quarterback – Like just about everyone on this list but Murray, I owned Newton in multiple leagues last season. The kid was tremendous and helped win me a championship. I have one keeper in that league and as enticing as it is to keep him, I am throwing him back. See Michael Vick 2010 and 2011. I find it hard to believe that Newton will score anywhere close to 13 rushing TDs. I also think that defenses have an entire offseason to prepare for him based on last year’s video. I would love to own Cam Newton again but not at the cost of my first or second pick in the draft. Unfortunately if you want him, that is where you will have to grab him, and I think there are QBs that you can take in the mid-rounds that will give you better or equivalent numbers.
Fred Jackson, Running Back – I was one of the lucky ones that drafted Jackson in two of my fantasy leagues last season. Jackson is coming off a monster year that surprised even the biggest Buffalo Bills fans. Someone in your draft will grab this guy much higher than where he should be drafted and pay the price for it later. I am not worried as much about coming off the injury than the emergence of C.J. Spiller after Jackson went down. Spiller is the future and Jackson is in a contract year. The team will be doing everything they can to transition Spiller to feature back which will leave Jackson owners left out in the Buffalo cold.
Vernon Davis, Tight End – My hunch is that fantasy owners will be more likely to remember the Vernon Davis that went nuts in the playoffs as opposed to the guy who did almost nothing all season. This will likely result in Davis being one of the first tight ends taken in fantasy leagues, likely third after Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. I don’t believe for a second that Davis will repeat those kinds of numbers in the regular season simply because the 49ers aren’t built that way. Jim Harbaugh has a system and in that system Vernon Davis is not used as a receiving threat. I think he’ll have average numbers but nowhere near the kind of production you’d expect according to his A.DP.
[adinserter block=”1″]DeMarco Murray, Running Back – Murray became one of the instant hits on the waiver wire after he went nuts on the St. Louis Rams in his first start as a Dallas Cowboy. However, I think that first big game clouded a lot of fantasy owners’ judgements and began to overrate this guy a bit as the season went on. While Murray did have some monster games, he only scored 1 touchdown after the Rams game. Plus, he has had questions about his durability going back to the draft. As long as Jason Garrett is coaching and Tony Romo is throwing, this will be a throwing offense. I tend to think that Murray will be overvalued, drafted high, and miss some games making him a bust according to his A.D.P.
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Didn't Cam just throw three interceptions in the f'n Pro Bowl?
I believe he was 9-27 or some shit.
Anyway, I'm not sold on the guy and I don't think he's the future of the NFL.
Gronk is still going to be a beast though, imo.
Lol, Cam, Murray, and Fred Jackson were all part of my money league championship this year, so I'm right there with ya! And I almost traded for Vernon! I'll have to disagree about Cam and Murray, though. Newton is so big and powerful that Carolina will continue to rush him in the red zone, where he got a lot of those points. I also expect him to cut down on his 17 picks for next year, and as a whole that offense working better. Guys like Steve Smith are rejuvenated and he'll have others like Brandon LaFell to provide speed and size and veteran leadership from Olson and Shockey, if he stays. Plus, the yards will be there…their defense will still probably suck and he will let it rip when he has to.
As for Murray, just far too much talent to worry about injuries. They said the same thing about Adrian Peterson coming out of college, and he turned out okay (for the most part).
Still, both may be overdrafted in the long run, but I'd flag guys like Victor Cruz and Marshawn Lynch before Cam or Murray. Fun read!
My opinion on Cam is that his numbers will be down and in the end, he'll have numbers similar to Ryan and Eli. Not bust numbers, but considering that people will be taking him with the first pick, I don't think his points will justify the ADP.
Murray, I need to see more before I jump on that bandwagon. Its not a running back friendly offense for one thing. His durability has always been a question.
Totally agree with you on Lynch. I think Cruz will be okay but won't measure up to where most will grab him.
Thanks for commenting man!