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The big news this afternoon in NFL free agency is Randy Moss signing with the San Francisco 49ers. This marks the return to the NFL of one of fantasy football biggest scorers. Will Moss return to fantasy greatness or is he a draft bust waiting to happen?

I was excited when I heard that Moss was returning to the NFL. Yes, his career ended in 2010 with terrible numbers, and the worst season of his playing career. However, I just wasn’t ready to believe that Moss lost all of that blazing talent overnight. This was the number two fantasy wide receiver just a couple of seasons ago after all right?

For Moss is all about the right fit. Tom Brady was the right fit and Moss was born to play in that offense. The Tennessee Titans and 2010 Minnesota Vikings were not. This is why my fantasy radar went way up when reports surfaced about Moss signing with the New Orleans Saints. He couldn’t lose in that offense! Unfortunately it was not meant to be.

Instead Moss will wear a San Francisco 49ers uniform in 2012. Talk about the complete opposite situation. This is not a wide receiver-friendly offense. In terms of fantasy output, Michael Crabtree had the best season of all 49ers receivers with 108 points. To put that into perspective, the man only had four TDs for the season and finished behind guys like Santonio Holmes, Malcom Floyd, and Reggie Wayne. In other words, it was a fairly average season at best.

I can’t think of many worse situations for Randy Moss in 2012. I may even give him a better shot with the Jaguars than the 49ers. I know that Alex Smith played lights out football in the playoffs, but his regular season numbers were not very good. This isn’t a throwing offense. It is a ball-control, running offense, which offers limited opportunities for big plays. Jim Harbaugh doesn’t take those kinds of risks. Which begs the question as to why the team signed Randy Moss in the first place?

In terms of fantasy, I am not expecting much from Moss next year. I’d put the over/under at four TDs, making him a bye-week filler at best. As far as drafting, I wouldn’t take him before the 12th round. We have all seen what Alex Smith can do and he is just not a guy that the 49ers are going to put out there and let air out the ball. I can’t imagine drafting Moss at all, unless he was hanging around the 15th or 16th round. Otherwise he is just going to take up space on your roster.

Could he surprise me? The only way that happens is if there is a QB change in San Francisco. If I draft Moss, I am holding onto him simply for that hope, a QB change. Otherwise you could do much better elsewhere.

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