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Very Early Super Bowl XLV Odds

Peyton Manning Commercial The confetti is still on the ground in Miami from the New Orleans Saints Super Bowl XLIV win, yet the Vegas oddsmakers are already looking towards next year. The very early odds are out for Super Bowl XLV. Even with a win over the Colts, the Saints are not favored to repeat. In a sign of outright disrespect, the Indianapolis Colts and a team that didn’t even get out of the Wild Card round have better odds to win Super Bowl XLV than the Who Dat Nation.

The Indianapolis Colts Top the list of favorites to win Super Bowl XLV with 13-2 odds. It is hard to bet against a team that could have went undefeated in the regular season if not for their own undoing. Surprising or not, the San Diego Chargers come in as the second favorite with 8-1 odds. The New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints round out the top tier both with 10-1 odds to win next season’s Super Bowl.

Obviously these odds don’t mean a whole heck of a lot seven months before the next NFL regular season starts. Although, I am surprised that the Chargers and Patriots are such heavy favorites. The Chargers are likely to lose LaDainian Tomlinson and are perennial underachievers under Norv Turner. The Patriots young defense was exposed in the playoffs by the Baltimore Ravens and several times throughout the regular season. Looking at the top tier, I think the Saints are the best bargain at 10-1 odds.

I thought it would be fun to look back at the first Super Bowl XLIV odds from last year. So how well did Vegas do and what kind of bargains could you have gotten if you placed your Super Bowl bets last February? Vegas didn’t do so well last year in predicting this year’s Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants were the Super Bowl favorites last February. Neither team even made the playoffs this season. This can’t bode well for Colts and Chargers fans in looking at this year’s early odds.

Vegas did a much better job in picking the next three teams. The Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, and Baltimore Ravens followed the Steelers and Giants as favorites. If you placed your bet with Indianapolis back in February, you could have gotten 12-1 odds. 12-1 odds aren’t that bad at all for a team that had a good shot at going undefeated. By the start of the season, those odds dropped to 8-1. Not that the Colts won, but you would be sitting pretty going into Sunday’s game if you had the Colts with 12-1 odds.

Interestingly enough, the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints came in ninth on the list of teams predicted to win Super Bowl XLIV back in February. If you bet the Saints at this time last year, you got 20-1 odds, and chances are that you are still partying on Bourbon Street.  In retrospect, the Saints were probably the best bargain on the list even at this time last year.

I always enjoy looking at these lists now because there is usually a 20-1 or even 30-1 team that makes a big run next season. I don’t see anyone of the bottom of this list making that run next season. The Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all come in with 100-1 odds. I’d say the three best bets are the Houston Texans with 35-1 odds, the Tennessee Titans with 25-1 odds, or the New York Giants at 20-1.

So take these odds for what their worth, not much. Then again, these guys know what they are doing most of the time when they make these odds. Yet, there is no accounting for free agency, coaching changes, injuries, and the NFL Draft when you are looking at Super Bowl odds before the offseason even begins. As the Saints showed, a 20-1 odd favorite has just as much of a chance as a 12-1 favorite has at winning the Super Bowl twelve months before kickoff.

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Eric G.

Eric is the owner and editor-in-chief of the Camel Clutch Blog. Eric has worked in the pro wrestling industry since 1995 as a ring announcer in ECW and a commentator/host on television, PPV, and home video. Eric also hosted Pro Wrestling Radio on terrestrial radio from 1998-2009. Check out some of Eric's work on his IMDB bio and Wikipedia. Eric has an MBA from Temple University's Fox School of Business.

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