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The ink hasn’t even dried on the contract and the MMA oddsmakers have already released odds on the UFC 131 main-event. Junior Dos Santos has opened as a big favorite against Shane Carwin, much larger than he was against Brock Lesnar.

Junior Dos Santos opened as a -260 favorite against the former UFC interim heavyweight champion. The MMA odds have come down slightly in Carwin’s favor. JDS has dipped over the last 24 hours quite a bit and the odds have evened out. Bodog.com currently has JDS with -185 odds, a big difference in just 24 hours. JDS is -190 on BetUs.com.

Shane Carwin is a pretty good bet if you believe in the big man. Carwin opened up at a +200 underdog in the first few hours after the fight announcement. Bodog.com and Bet US currently have Carwin at +155. I have seen Carwin at +180-+200 in some places so if you want to bet Carwin, now is the time to place your bets. My hunch is that the odds will level out at about +175-180 by fight time on most sportsbooks.

By the MMA odds, this is a much better fight for Dos Santos. Dos Santos was hovering around at a -155 favorite against Brock Lesnar with Lesnar as a +125 underdog. So the good news here is if you don’t believe in Dos Santos, you’ll have better odds with the new opponent. If you do believe in JDS, grab your odds now before they crawl back up.

It is a very interesting matchup and one that is extremely hard to handicap. The irony here is that in my opinion, this is a much more even matchup than the Lesnar vs. Dos Santos. I would have guessed that the odds JDS is getting now would be more in line with what he would had against Lesnar and vice versa. I think Shane Carwin is being highly undervalued and underrated which makes him a dangerous opponent for JDS.

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Up until the Roy Nelson fight I was convinced that JDS was a top three heavyweight. I am really concerned by his inability to finish Roy Nelson. On top of that, it appeared that Nelson was actually getting stronger by the end of the fight. If JDS stands in the pocket with Carwin like he did Lesnar, he is getting knocked out. If not for the miracle comeback by Lesnar, Shane Carwin would have continued his streak of first round TKOs and would be a UFC heavyweight champion.

It will be very interesting to see Santos’ game plan early in the fight. I can’t imagine he is going to try and stand with Carwin. I would imagine he tries to take him down and grind him into exhaustion on the ground. The only problem is that to get the takedown, he will leave himself open for Carwin. That alone makes Carwin a much bigger favorite to me than the sportsbooks reflect and a heck of a bet at the current UFC 131 odds.

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