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When browsing the sports wagering sites looking for information on your next NFL betting pick, you have to be careful about those games that look like a sure thing. The reason that the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars are only nine point underdogs to the 2-1 Indianapolis Colts is because the Jags always play the Colts tough in Jacksonville. Jacksonville could be having its worst season ever and Peyton Manning could have thrown 100 touchdown passes, but when the Colts step into the Jaguars stadium everything changes.

The football betting experts still believe that Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts are the team to beat for the Super Bowl this year. The defending champion New Orleans Saints are having serious defensive problems this year as well as the other NFC favorite to make it to the Super Bowl, the Green Bay Packers. There is not a team in the league that would survive a shoot out against Peyton Manning, especially when his defense is playing so well this year.

Being honest, the NFL predictions do not give the Jaguars much of a chance to make the playoffs much less compete for the Super Bowl. But there is just something about Peyton Manning playing in Jacksonville that brings out the best in the Jags. It could be the national spotlight that shines on any Peyton Manning game, or it could be the desire to knock off the best quarterback in the league. Whatever drives the Jaguars to beat the Colts in Jacksonville, they are going to need a lot of it this week.

This season Peyton Manning is on a mission. He feels embarrassed about the results of Super Bowl XLIV and, admittedly, it was a bit painful watching one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game struggle so mightily on the NFL’s biggest worldwide stage. A great quarterback duel would have done wonders for the NFL in last year’s Super Bowl, but Manning was not up to the task. This year he is focused and up to the task.

Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew is a men among boys in that Jaguars offense. After poor performances in the first three weeks of the season that has seen a total of 448 passing yards, quarterback David Garrard is starting to hear it from Jaguars fans. The roar that wants Luke McCown to take over at quarterback is getting louder, but it is doubtful that a change at quarterback will make that much of an impact on the Jaguars chances of making the playoffs.

The Jags play bad defense. They cannot stop the run or the pass. They get no pressure on the quarterback, and their secondary is inconsistent. Jacksonville has a point differential of -43, while the Colts point differential is 28. That does not mean good things for the Jaguars in this game, even though it is being played in Jacksonville. The Jags will keep it close, but they do not have enough to win against the Colts.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts 21-18

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