Greg Jackson is turning into one of the most polarizing coaches in MMA. His track record as a coach is arguably the greatest of any MMA coach from this era. However, I think a fair question to ask is whether these wins & losses are coming at the cost of MMA and the UFC.

Jackson’s list of champions is a who’s who of MMA. I don’t think anyone would question his track record and game planning. Yet after the recent Clay Guida vs. Gray Maynard debacle, I immediately developed an immense hatred for the man and his tactics. Thanks to Jackson’s “game-planning” the UFC delivered one of the most disappointing main-events in their history of television fights. Even worse, Guida’s reputation went from warrior to runner in a fight that saw Guida run for five rounds and walk away with a loss.

Now I will say this about the fight. As much as I hated it, I was shocked Guida lost. I was so enraged when the final buzzer sounded that I turned the fight off. I didn’t bother waiting for a winner to be announced because quite frankly, I thought it was a given that Guida won. I was stunned the next day when I read that Maynard came away with a decision. But at the end of the day it was Jackson that put his fighter in the position to lose.

Fighting in the UFC is a real tricky thing for a Mixed-Martial Artist. There is a real fine line between winning fights and entertaining fans. Guys like Jon Fitch and even Maynard have rolled off numerous wins only to be criticized by Dana White for not producing exciting fights. At the same time, sacrificing a smart game plan for an exciting fan will give you a lousy record and a fast ticket out of the UFC. This is why I always found UFC bonuses to be a little unscrupulous. The UFC is almost manipulating fights by saying, “Hey stand up and throw and you can win a bonus.” That is fine but shouldn’t a win mean more than a lucky punch?

White is no fan of Jackson‘s coaching or the way he conducts business. Between Jackson’s insistence that fighters in his camp don’t fight each other (when it’s convenient) and recent game plans which saw more running than fighting, I almost think White would be happier if Jackson announced a sudden retirement. Yet at the end of the day the UFC is a business and it is time to seriously question whether Jackson is good for the business of MMA?

Jackson took credit for Guida’s game plan, even in the face of a loss. “I wanted Clay to, after he drew Gray out, to engage a little bit more, but I think Clay was waiting for him to open up a little bit and he was able to land some combinations when he did that. But one of the things that I think both Clay and I learned is that … we need to do a little more right after the misses, kind of jumping on him a little bit more. I chalk it up to experience and a learning process, and hopefully we won’t be in that situation again where we have such a close decision. Hopefully we’ll be able to dominate the next time.”

It took Jackson until 2012 to realize that his fighters need to capitalize on openings? Come on! Does anyone think for a second that Jackson is seriously going to change his strategies moving forward from this? He didn’t learn when Lyoto Machida knocked Rashad Evans clear into next week and that was years ago. Has Jackson had success with similar plans since then? Fans run when they hear the name “Nate Marquardt.” Sure, Carlos Condit just won the interim title with this brilliant strategy. However, ask yourself how many fans want to pay $50 to ever see Carlos Condit fight again?

Luke Rockhold of Strikeforce is already concerned about Jackson’s game planning regarding his upcoming fight against Jackson-coached Tim Kennedy. “… not a fan of Greg Jackson game plans, so I just hope that [Kennedy] comes out and fights me in the middle, and fights me everywhere.” No fighter wants to step into the octagon and worry about their opponent running away from them for three-five rounds. That is not the competition most of these guys signed up for.

To be fair, Jackson has trained plenty of fighters who deliver exciting fights. Jon Jones and Leonard Garcia are just two guys that come to mind who happen to be two of the most exciting fighters in MMA. So what is the problem here? Is it the fighter or is it Jackson? Is it a case where Jackson has more confidence in some fighters than others? I don’t care what you call it but Jackson has had enough of these snoozers in the last few years to make MMA fans concerned, considering the large number of fighters he coaches.

Stick and moving is fine but not when the moving is about 80% of the game plan. Fighters need to seriously reconsider these game plans before giving Jackson the thumbs up on the strategy. The disgruntled UFC viewer won’t remember that Greg Jackson coached a boring strategy in the fight they just wasted their time or money watching. Fans will remember the fight that walked into the octagon and left looking more like a coward than a warrior. If it works for you in the win column, that’s great, but at the end of the day this is a business and if people refuse to pay for your fights going forward, the fighter, the UFC, and the fans will all be losing in the end.

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“This isn’t (expletive) ‘Dancing With the Stars.’ You can’t win a fight by running around in circles – that’s not how fights are won.” – Dana White at the UFC on FX 4 Press Conference

The above quote is from Dana White after watching the UFC on FX 4 Main Event between Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. For those of you who haven’t seen the bout, I would recommend that you probably don’t, unless you have a keen interest in fighters that fail to engage their opponents, or perhaps if you’re having trouble sleeping. Guida’s performance from that bout and his game plan have earned him the ire of many in the MMA community including fighters, bloggers and even the UFC President.

After immediately watching the bout I myself was pretty angry. I am a big fan of Mixed Martial Arts and the UFC, but fights like that aren’t what I tune in regularly to see. Before I get too far into this let me preface this by saying that Guida is low on my favorite fighters list, in fact, I strongly dislike Guida as a fighter. Secondly, immediately after watching the bout, I said to myself ‘This is all Greg Jackson’s fault.” Like me, many in the MMA community have shared that sentiment and it’s not the first time that Jackson has been blamed for a poor fight due to his game planning.

But really, is Greg Jackson the one to be blamed in all of this? Mixed Martial Arts is a relatively young sport and it is still developing, making rapid leaps and bounds constantly. Because of this, it’s experiencing some growing pains. One of those growing pains is judging and scoring bouts. We all like to complain when fighters are “robbed” as we say, or if a fight is judged poorly and while oftentimes the case is that a judge is uneducated about what they are watching, the other fact is that the judging criteria for the ten-point must system in the UFC is slightly broken.

Let’s start with the source of the problem. We as fans are always following blindly behind UFC President Dana White when he tells fighters “don’t leave it in the hands of the judges.” This is a problem right here. There shouldn’t be an inherent problem with going to the scorecards. MMA bouts can’t go on indefinitely, that’s why there are judges there to score the contests, so why should fighters be fighting in fear of the scorecards?

The first problem is the broken perception that fighters who go to decisions are boring fighters, or that fights that go to Decisions aren’t exciting fights. If you can’t see the flawed thinking in those two statements then I question how much MMA you have truly watched in your lifetime. There are a number of fighters that I could name off who regularly fight to decisions, but are among the most exciting in the world; Dominick Cruz, Frankie Edgar, Rashad Evans, Forrest Griffin and Clay Guida just to name a few.

The second problem lies with the UFC and the make up of the sport. Fighters are paid to show up and win, they’re expected to entertain, but the ultimate goal is winning not entertainment. The people calling for Jackson’s head because of his game planning need to look hard at the UFC itself. Game plans are part of the sport and no one should be criticizing a fighter for fighting intelligently, in a contest between two evenly matched fighters, the one who fights more intelligently and more to his strengths and his opponents weaknesses will win the fight every time. In other sports; take the NFL for example good game planning is called good coaching. Is anyone ever going to call Tom Coughlin bad for the sport of football because he’s shut down Tom Brady in two Superbowls? Unlikely at best.

So if game plans aren’t the problem and fighting to a decision isn’t the problem, what is? I think right now the sport itself is the problem. While we watch fights to be entertained, the goal of the fighter is to win. Most fighters are inherently entertaining, or will try to entertain as much as they can, but rarely is an intelligent fighter going to sacrifice the chance to win to entertain the fans. If the UFC wants to make fights more exciting, than they need to take a look at the scoring, officiating and judging of MMA bouts.

Currently, MMA uses a ten-point must system. Whether or not this is the best system for MMA and the UFC, is a whole other argument, we’re stuck with it for now, so how can it be improved? Better definitions of what causes a round to be won or lost. Better definitions of effective aggression, octagon control and their impact on a round. Better use of the ten-point must system, including the use of 10-10 rounds as well as 10-8 and 10-7 rounds.

In the final round of the Guida vs. Maynard fight, referee Dan Mirgliotta had seen enough in the fifth round of the fight and issued Guida a warning for being timid and refusing to engage. A warning like this needs to be delivered sooner than the final round. As well, the implementation of Pride’s Yellow Card system might be a welcome addition to the UFC. In the Golden days of Pride Fighting Championships a fighter was issued a Yellow card for excessive stalling and timidity, if issued a yellow card that fighter was fined 20% of his purse, per violation. A system like this or a quicker warning to Guida could definitely have changed the way this fight played out.

The bottom line is that fighters are in the sport to win. And who can argue with them, it pays to be a winner. To take a look at the UFC’s top earners per fight, I would venture a guess that the top ten is nearly a who’s who of UFC Champions and top contenders. (Due to the nature of the UFC, it’s impossible to know 100% accurately what fighters make per fight.) However, according to several lists top fighters in 2011 included Michael Bisping; a top Middleweight contender, Jon Jones; UFC Light Heavyweight Champion, Vitor Belfort; Top Middleweight Contender, Lyoto Machida; Top Light Heavyweight Contender and former Champion and Rashad Evans; Top Light Heavyweight Contender and former Champion.

Are game plans bad for the sport? Absolutely not, there’s nothing wrong with fighters who fight to their own strengths and into their opponent’s weaknesses. Are coaches like Greg Jackson bad for the sport? Of course not, intelligent revolutionary coaches in other sports like NBA, NFL and NHL win yearly awards for coming up with intelligent game plans. The problem is bad game plans and public perception.

Greg Jackson is probably the easiest target for fans and media members alike. This isn’t the first time he’s been thrown into the fire over game planning and fighting intelligently. The last time he simply typed up a list of various Fight Night awards that his fighters had won in the past and sent it to the MMA media. This time, he’s said basically nothing. But he really shouldn’t have to. His job is to help his fighters win fights, and this weekend for Clay Guida he did that.

Call Guida’s fight against Maynard what it was a crappy fight, based on a crappy game plan that was poorly executed. It’s not the first time a Team Jackson-Winklejohn fighter has tried to turn a fight into a point-sparring match, Carlos Condit did it infamously against Nick Diaz earlier this year. The difference was Condit used his game plan of constant movement to frustrate Diaz and out strike him, while Guida used it to run around for five rounds. However, this was the worst performance of one of those game plans that’s ever been seen.

For those people who are hating on Jackson relentlessly and saying that the Condit-Diaz fight is nearly the same as the Guida-Maynard fight, here’s a few numbers to help prove you wrong. Over the course of five rounds Guida threw 321 Significant Strikes and landed 45, for an awful connection percentage of 14%. He was out landed by the man he was trying to frustrate Gray Maynard by only 4 Significant Strikes (49 of 225) but was out struck by an 8% accuracy clip. Condit on the other hand, over the course of a five-round fight landed 151 of 320 Significant Strikes, landing at an impressive 47% rate. Condit also significantly out landed his opponent that night, Nick Diaz who landed 105 of 246 Significant Strikes.

Let’s face it folks, game planning and intelligent coaching is here to stay in MMA. And as long as Greg Jackson produces winners and champions, fighters will continue to flock to him for advice and training. But it’s not all bad, game plans aren’t bad for the sport, it’s proof that the sport we love is continuing to grow and evolve. Call the Guida-Maynard fight for what it was, a less than entertaining bout between two fighters who are capable of more. When two NFL teams stink up the field, we don’t stop watching them, don’t give up on MMA yet fans, there’s plenty more entertaining scraps to come.

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The UFC train continues to roll on with another historic weekend for the world’s largest MMA promotion. The UFC will hold events on back to back nights for the first time ever, and beyond all of that, they’re going to do it in two different countries. The first event is UFC on FX 4 live from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City on Friday night.

The main event features a five round Lightweight bout between two top contenders in Gray Maynard and Clay Guida. Both fighters are coming off of losses, but they were to the former Lightweight champion and the reigning Lightweight champion as Maynard last lost to Frankie Edgar at UFC 136 and it will be Guida’s first bout since losing a number one contender’s bout to current champ Benson Henderson at the first UFC on FOX event.

Three other bouts will be featured on the FX Main Card including the trilogy bout between Sam Stout and Spencer Fisher. Although this Lightweight class will have very little impact on the title rankings, it will likely be a high-octane brawl that is likely to win the Fight of the Night honors. Kicking off the main card is a Featherweight bout between Ross Pearson and the recently resurgent Cub Swanson. The other is a Welterweight bout between veteran fighter Brian Ebersole and TJ Waldburger. The rest of the preliminary card airs either on Facebook or on Fuel TV.

Preliminary Card (Facebook): Bantamweight Bout: Ken Stone vs. Dustin Pague

Ken Stone is an American fighter who is a member of the American Top Team fighting out of Coconut Creek, Florida. He is a former NCAA Wrestler, who wrestled at the collegiate level at Bridgewater State University. Stone has won all of his career victories by stoppage with 6 submissions and 4 TKOs. He holds a career record of 10-3. Dustin “The Disciple” Pague is pulling a Chris Leben on this one as he steps in on extremely short notice, only 2 weeks after his last victory at UFC on FX 3. Pague is a grappler by nature and his success in the octagon relies on his ability to get his fights to the ground and take advantage of his opponents. After Pague’s win two weeks ago, he moved his career record to 11-5. Ken Stone via Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card (Facebook): Welterweight Bout: Dan Miller vs. Ricardo Funch

Dan Miller is the older brother of Lightweight fighter Jim Miller. He is a former Middleweight who is making the cut to Welterweight for the first time. Unfortunately he’s doing it on a two fight losing skid. Miller is a fairly well rounded fighter, but doesn’t really excel at any particular facet of MMA. His ground game is pretty solid, but his striking is fairly basic and sloppy. He holds a career record of 13-6. Ricardo “Golden Boy” Funch is a Brazilian fighter from Bahia, Brazil who now trains with Team Link in Ludlow, Massachusetts. He is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt but that’s about the extent of his talents. Funch is not a strong wrestler and likely won’t have the ability to out strike Miller on the feet. He holds a career record of 8-3. Dan Miller via Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV): Welterweight Bout: Matt Brown vs. Luis Ramos

Matt “The Immortal” Brown is an American fighter and a former cast-member of The Ultimate Fighter. Brown is actually a fairly competent grappler with backgrounds in BJJ and Judo, however once the cage door closes he usually foregoes those skills for a striking based attack. This willingness to engage any and all comers on the feet has earned him a rocky record, but the adoration of fans and the bigwigs in the UFC as he is one of the more entertaining fighters on the UFC’s Welterweight roster. He holds a career record of 14-11. Luis “Beicao” Ramos is a Brazilian fighter from the Nova Uniao camp in his home country. Ramos is a former Shooto Brazil champion who is a ground based fighter whose game relies on taking his opponents down and controlling them from the top. That is exactly the kind of fighter that has given Brown problems in the past and this could be an upset in the making. Luis Ramos via Submission in Round Two

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV): Middleweight Bout: Nick Catone vs. Chris Camozzi

Nick “The Jersey Devil” Catone is an American fighter who will be fighting in his home state of New Jersey. He is a member of the Gracie/Almeida Fight Team in Hamilton, New Jersey. Catone is a former NCAA Division 1 Wrestler and a BJJ brown belt who relies on wrestling and top control in his bouts. A torn Achilles forced him out of the cage for over a year and this is his first bout since March of 2011. He holds a career record of 9-2. Chris “Kamikaze” Camozzi is an American fighter who trains with the factory X Gym in Lakewood, Colorado. Camozzi is a former cast member of The Ultimate Fighter who is very well rounded but has struggled against some of the upper-tier of Middleweight fighters in the UFC. Camozzi is still a tough draw for any one, and holds a career record of 16-5. Nick Catone via Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV): Welterweight Bout: Rick Story vs. Brock Jardine

Rick “The Horror” Story is an American fighter from Tacoma, Washington. Story’s fight game usually revolves around his wrestling ability. He does his best work when he’s able to take his opponents down and control them from top position. His stand up is decent, but he mostly uses it as a tool to close distance and work for takedowns so that he is not left shooting from the outside. Story has struggled in the past against opponents who don’t allow Story to take them down. He holds a career record of 13-5. Brock “The Machine” Jardine is an American fighter from the Pit Fight Team. Jardine is a top prospect at 170-pounds but will be making his promotional debut on short-notice due to the injury bug that has been plaguing the UFC all summer. He is a quality fighter with his lone career defeat coming against TUF winner Tony Ferguson. Jardine holds a career record of 9-1. Rick Story via Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV): Featherweight Bout: Steven Siler vs. Joey Gambino

“Super” Steven Siler is an American fighter from Anaheim, California. He is a former cast-member of the fourteenth season of The Ultimate Fighter. Siler is another member of the Pit Elevated Fight Team. Siler lost to eventual show winner Diego Brandao, but has earned two straight victories in the UFC since his time on the show. He holds a career record of 20-9. Joey “The Raging Warrior” Gambino is an undefeated promotional newcomer who is making his debut as an injury replacement for JImy Hettes. Gambino is a strong wrestler from the Tristar Gym and trains with a top-level team. Gambino will be at a reach and size disadvantage but should hold a significant grappling edge if he can wrestle Silar to the mat. Joey Gambino via Submission in Round Two

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV): Lightweight Bout: Ramsey Nijem vs. C.J. Keith

Ramsey Nijem is a former The Ultimate Fighter finalist on the thirteenth season of the show. Nijem is a member of the Riven Academy in Orem, Utah. Nijem is a strong wrestler with an excellent top game. His striking is fairly mediocre, but he throws with bad intentions and can definitely connect with power. Nijem holds a career record of 5-2. C.J. Keith is a promotional newcomer who is from Porterville, California. He is a member of the Pro Buhawe Fight Team and is an undefeated prospect. This will not only be his octagon debut, but it will also be his first bout outside of his hometown of Porterville. He holds a perfect professional record of 8-0. Ramsey Nijem via Submission in Round One

Preliminary Card (Fuel TV): Featherweight Bout: Hatsu Hioki vs. Ricardo Lamas

First off, let me say that I am unsure why this fight is being buried on the undercard. It is the final preliminary card bout, so there is a chance that it gets shown on FX, but Hioki is widely considered to be the top contender to Jose Aldo, but actually turned down a fight with the champion, to get better acclimated fighting inside a cage. I would think that the UFC would try to showcase the possible next contender, but perhaps not. Either way, let’s look at the fight.

Hatsu “Iron Boom” Hioki is a Japanese fighter and the number two-ranked Featherweight fighter in the world. He is a member of the ALIVE Shooto Gym in Nagoya, Japan and also trains in North America at the Tristar Gym. Hioki is a BJJ black belt, with competent striking skills and strong takedowns. Hioki is a former Shooto and Sengoku Champion. He holds a career record of 26-4-2. Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas is an American fighter from Chicago, Illinois. He is a member of the Top Notch MMA Gym in Elmhurst, Illinois. He is a former NCAA Division 3 wrestler, who uses his wrestling skills well in his fights. He prefers to use takedowns and grind his opponents from top position. His best bet against Hioki will likely be to try and outwrestle Hioki, as that has proven to be a bit of a weak spot in Hioki’s armour in the past. Lamas holds a career record of 11-2. Hatsu Hioki via TKO in Round Two

Main Card (FX): Featherweight Bout: Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson

Ross “The Real Deal” Pearson is a British fighter from Sunderland, England. He is a former winner of the US vs. UK version of The Ultimate Fighter in the Lightweight division who has since made the cut to Featherweight. Pearson is a fairly well rounded fighter who despite his solid grappling credentials (black belt in Tae Kwan Do and brown belt in Judo) prefers to strike for the majority of his bouts. It’s hard to argue with his results, as he’s rarely if ever been completely outclassed in a kickboxing match up. Pearson has solid boxing skills with a strong jab and excellent footwork and a strong chin which allows him to stand in the pocket and trade. Pearson’s best bet for this bout may just be to counterpunch effectively, as Swanson is known to get wild and reckless at times which would open him up for Pearson’s excellent counter combinations. Pearson holds a career record of 13-5.

Cub Swanson is an American fighter from Palm Springs, California. Swanson is a member of Greg Jackson’s Submission Fighting Gym in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Swanson like his opponent is much more well rounded than most give him credit for. His ground game is decent and although he’s not an expert at fighting off of his back, he has solid submission awareness when he is in top control and has 7 victories by way of tap out. Swanson is also well known for his extremely aggressive striking and his capoeira inspired kicks. Swanson is likely going to be the quicker more agile fighter on fight night, but will likely be at a size and strength disadvantage. Swanson has a career record 16-5.

Prediction and Analysis: Many people are billing this bout as a boxer vs. brawler type of bout and that kind of sums it up. Swanson doesn’t always brawl, but he’s been drawn into them before. That type of fight benefits Pearson who is the larger fighter and the better boxer, so he’d rather stick it out in the pocket and slug away. Swanson hits harder, but Pearson has a hell of a chin and isn’t likely to be stopped by punches. It’s likely going to be closer than a lot of people anticipate, but I think Pearson wins more of the exchanges and takes home a Unanimous Decision. Ross Pearson via Unanimous Decision

Main Card (FX): Welterweight Bout: Brian Ebersole vs. TJ Waldburger

Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole is a 31-year-old veteran of the sport of MMA with 65 career bouts. Ebersole is a former NCAA Division 1 Wrestler from Indiana. Ebersole has traveled the world to add to his training. He has fought as heavy as Heavyweight throughout his career, but is currently riding a ten-fight winning streak in the Welterweight division. Ebersole currently fights out of the ESS Performance Gym in Melbourne, Australia. Ebersole’s bread and butter is his wrestling, as he uses takedowns and ground and pound to negate the strengths of his opponents. Ebersole is also extremely durable and has never been knocked out in 65 career bouts, it’s a trend that Waldburger is unlikely to break. Ebersole holds a career record of 49-14-1 with 1 No Contest.

TJ Waldburger is an American fighter from Temple, Texas. Waldburger is a grappling based fighter with a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu who mainly relies on his submission game inside the cage. He is a member of the Grappler’s Lair in his hometown. Waldburger has twelve career victories by way of Submission and Ebersole has 9 losses via Submission, so that may be a good sign for Waldburger supporters. Waldburger has a slightly awkward striking style, he throws everything with bad intentions, but often leaves himself in precarious positions where he is susceptible to takedowns and big counter punches. Against a solid wrestler with big power like Ebersole, a couple of mistakes like that will likely cost him. Waldburger’s career record currently stands at 15-6.

Predictions and Analysis: It’s easy to look at the resumes of these two fighters and assume that Waldburger likely has the edge due to his submission savvy offense and Ebersole’s apparent ineptness on the ground, but that would be incorrect. Ebersole has shored up a lot of holes in his submission defense recently and has defeated UFC calibre grapplers during his current winning streak, so he’s unlikely to be caught in something from top control. The other problem for Waldburger is that Ebersole has significantly better wrestling skills. It will be tough for Waldburger to get Ebersole to the mat, short of pulling guard, which means he won’t get to spend a lot of time in top control, which is really where he does his best work. I expect that Ebersole uses his wrestling skills to keep the bout upright and uses his more technically polished kick boxing skills to eventually stop Waldburger in the second round. Brian Ebersole via TKO in Round Two

Main Card (FX): Lightweight Bout: Sam Stout vs. Spencer Fisher

Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout is a Canadian fighter from London, Ontario. Stout is a former professional kick boxer He is a member of the Team Tompkins Gym in London, Ontario. He was trained by legendary striking coach Shawn Tompkins. Stout is a talented kick boxer who has actually battled Spencer Fisher twice before, with each man winning one, leading us to this rubber match. Stout has claimed in interviews that he has been working on his ground game in preparation for this bout, but my guess is that this one remains a stand up affair. The threat of a takedown is often what derails Stout, as he doesn’t let his combinations go as well as he should. Despite his nickname, Stout isn’t known for his one-shot knockout power and instead relies on a volume striking Muay Thai style, which works well when he can find his groove and get going. Stout has a career record of 17-7, with most of his losses inside the UFC to big name opponents.

Spencer “The King” Fisher is a 36-year-old veteran of the sport, who is likely winding down his career. He is a highly entertaining fighter who prefers to brawl with his opponents and keep it entertaining for the fans. Fisher has struggled in the past against dominating wrestlers, but that won’t be a problem against Stout who would prefer to keep this one standing. Fisher is a former member of the Miletech Fighting Systems team, but currently trains with his own Team Evolution in Davenport, Iowa. Fisher can throw with big power, but has struggled in his most recent outings in the UFC, going 1-4. Fisher remains an important part of the UFC’s history, but his best days are likely behind him. He holds a career record of 24-8.

Predictions and Analysis: There likely isn’t any secrets heading into this fight, it’s likely going to be a stand up affair. Fisher has done well against Stout in the past, but his best days are definitely behind him. He no longer has the movement necessary to bob and weave around the cage to keep himself out of trouble. Even worse is that Stout is still in his athletic prime, now 28-years-old and seems to be learning how to throw punches with more power. The two actually share a common most recent opponent in Thiago Tavares. Fisher was soundly beaten on the feet and taken down at will before being knocked out in round two. Stout was grounded by Tavares but won several of the stand up exchanges and nearly stole a victory with a third round flurry. I think those two fights tell the tale of how this one is going to go. If Fisher can’t wrestle Stout he’s going to lose and I don’t think he can anymore. Expect a statement victory from Stout as he finishes his rival late in round three. Sam Stout by KO in Round Three

Main Card (FX): Lightweight Bout: Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida

Gray “The Bully” Maynard is an American fighter from Phoenix, Arizona who now trains with the American Kickboxing Academy. In addition to training with AKA he is also the head wrestling coach at the Nova Uniao camp in Brazil. This will be Maynard’s first bout since leaving his long-time gym of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. Maynard is best known for his two bouts against former UFC Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar, where in both bouts he started quickly and nearly finished Edgar in both fights, before fading down the stretch. Maynard is a strong wrestler who uses takedowns and top control to grind away at his opponents. He has decent boxing skills and can punch with incredible power (to be honest it’s a testament to Frankie Edgar’s toughness that he survived the first round in either one of his bouts against Maynard.) The clinch game should also favour Maynard who can utilize good dirty boxing uppercuts and batter Guida on the inside, much like Ben Henderson did in his bout against Guida. Maynard holds a professional MMA record of 10-1-1, with both of those ones coming against former champion Frankie Edgar.

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida is one of the more interesting characters in the UFC’s stable of fighters and is a fan-favorite. He is best known for his crazy hair, which is apparently going to be braided for the first time because of a complaint from American Kickboxing Academy trainers, as well as his endless gas tank. Guida is definitely not the most technically sound striker in the world, in fact his striking offense is pretty bad. He wings punches from all angles and bounces around like a kangaroo on speed, but that also makes him incredibly difficult to deal with as he’s always keeping his opponents guessing. Guida is also extremely durable and has never been knocked out in his entire career of over 40 professional bouts. Guida has struggled in the past against submission savvy fighters, but Maynard isn’t really a threat in that category. Guida has looked improved since switching to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico and is a handful for any opponent on any night. He holds a career record of 29-12.

Predictions and Analysis: Maynard is an intelligent fighter, he’s proven that in the past and I believe this change in camps is a welcome change of scenery for him. He will likely have made improvements in his cardio and pacing in preparation for this bout as it is a guarantee that Guida can fight for all five rounds. Guida is incredibly difficult to finish with strikes, so it’s best that he keeps composed and doesn’t punch himself out looking for a finish that isn’t there. Despite making it to decision, Guida was completely outworked by Ben Henderson in their fight at the first UFC on Fox show. Maynard has definitely watched that tape over and over and has been taking notes. Henderson avoided Guida’s takedowns and punished him every time he closed the distance. Maynard is a top-notch wrestler and that sprawl and brawl style is certainly a tactic he can employ.

For Guida he needs to constantly pressure Maynard. Maynard hits with big power, but Guida’s chin is solid and he will need to trust in his ability to take a punch to dish out a few more if he wants to have success. Shooting from the outside against Maynard isn’t going to work, so Guida will need to move forward constantly. That shouldn’t be a problem for him as he’s constantly bouncing around and moving his head for really no reason at all. Guida has to have seen Maynard fade late in fights, and I’m sure his plan is to drag this fight to deep waters where he can take advantage of Maynard’s cardio. Maynard gets lazy in the latter rounds of fights, his defense slips, his foot and head movement goes away and his punch count lowers, that is the perfect time for Guida to strike. Guida actually has a solid grappling game if he lets it go, but too often I find him willing to sit in guard and do very little but lay and pray for a decision. Depending on how the fight is going, he may be in need of a submission to steal the fight, so expect him to go after it in the later rounds if he senses Maynard tiring.

Overall, I give the edge to Maynard in this fight. He’s better in most of the important areas of the fight except for submission offense (unfortunately that’s probably his best path to victory.) Still he should be able to use his wrestling to control the pace and the placement of this fight. That’s going to be key for him, as Guida is going to pressure him and try to tire him out. Maynard needs to stay composed and stick to his game plan. Punish Guida in clinches when he gets too close, work for his own takedowns and control Guida on the mat. Once Maynard gets you down, unless you’re Frankie Edgar, you usually don’t get back up. Overall I expect Maynard to win four of the five rounds, unless the judge’s consider Guida flailing punches and bouncing around as effective aggression and octagon control. However, if Maynard fades late, Guida will still be ready to go and will definitely be able to capitalize. Gray Maynard via Unanimous Decision

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The UFC worked hard this past weekend finalizing two big fights. Two fights that some hardcore MMA fans could dub “Dream Fights” are confirmed and will be heating up an already red hot summer for the UFC.

A battle of former champions will take place this July at UFC 148. Former Strikeforce champion Cung Le returns to action to take on former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin in a battle of middleweight stars at the MGM Grand.

Franklin is returning to action after a 17-month layoff that saw him booked and removed from last summer’s UFC 133 show in Philadelphia. Franklin has been idle due to a shoulder injury although his name has popped up from time to time in rumored fights. Franklin will be returning to middleweight for the first time since he defeated Travis Lutter at UFC 83.

Cung Le returns to the UFC after a dazzling yet disappointing debut last year at UFC 139. Le was knocked out with 11 seconds remaining in the second round against MMA icon Wanderlei Silva. Le came to the UFC as a Strikeforce favorite, going 7-1, as one of the company’s top stars.

I am real intrigued by this fight. I have always been a big Le fan and I think Franklin is a great opportunity for him. Le should win a striking contest against the former champion, yet could have a difficult time if Franklin can take this one to the ground. The move back to middleweight is probably best for Franklin who is coming off a 1-2 record in the division.

In a fight that already has me pumped, Clay Guida will fight Gray Maynard at UFC on FX 4. I think this clearly the strongest main-event on paper that the UFC has given any of the FX events. If matchups make great fights, this has the makings of a classic.

The lightweights will try and sort out a messy division which has been put on hold barring the result of the upcoming rematch between Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson. Both fighters are coming off of exciting losses and will find themselves further away from an opportunity at the lightweight champion.

On paper I would have to give the early edge to Maynard. As exciting as Guida is, he just can’t put the elite fighters away. He has had many opportunities that saw him one fight away from earning a title shot only to lose out to his opponent. Guida has become something of a gatekeeper to the champion. Although to be fair, he probably should have earned a title shot with his win over Anthony Pettis at the TUF 13 finale.

I have always liked Gray Maynard although he can be hit or miss in the excitement department. Frankie Edgar has been Maynard’s kryptonite as he rolled off eight wins in the division before his two championship matches against Edgar. I can’t imagine that the UFC would rush to make another Edgar vs. Maynard title fight if both guys win but you never know. Strange things happen and with the rash of injuries that the UFC is likely to see this year, these two guys could wind up back on opposing sides of the octagon sooner than you think.

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UFC 136 was headlined by two championship matches but it was a post match promo that will be most remembered. Chael Sonnen was the man who stole the headlines with his post fight challenge, turning the UFC upside down with his WWE style challenge to Anderson Silva.

Chael Sonnen returned after a fourteen month layoff and defeated Brian Stann in the second round with an arm-triangle. Sonnen just smothered Stann with ground and pound for a round and a half before finally ending Stann’s misery. As impressive as Sonnen was during the fight, it was what Sonnen said after the fight that is making headlines.

“Anderson Silva, you absolutely suck. Super Bowl, weekend, the biggest weekend but we’re upping the stakes. I beat you, you leave the division. You beat me, I will leave the UFC forever.”

Sonnen upped the stakes and said that he would leave the UFC if he lost and asked that Anderson leave the middleweight division if the champion lost. This challenge has had the world of MMA buzzing the entire night.  Check out more on this in a full blog I wrote earlier on the challenge and fight.

Once the dust settled it was Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard that would close out the show with an exciting main event. Edgar and Maynard picked up right where they left off at UFC 125 with round eight! Maynard connected early with an uppercut and was all over Edgar. It was just like their last fight with Edgar just absorbing a ton of punishment yet getting out of the round. It appeared that Maynard broke Edgar’s nose with the shot. Somehow Edgar escaped as did Maynard’s chances at becoming UFC lightweight champion.

Edgar was able to rebound in the following round and seemed to confuse Maynard for the remainder of the fight. Maynard appeared to be looking for the knockout punch while Edgar just got in and out with strikes and kept on moving. Maynard never appeared in any real danger in the second round but Edgar certainly edged him out.

The next two rounds saw more of the same. It just appeared to me that Maynard was to one dimensional here just looking for another punch rather than mixing it up on the ground. In the fourth round the two had a scramble for a takedown and Edgar just rocked Maynard hard with an uppercut. Edgar swarmed with strikes and the fight was over at 3:54 of the fourth round.

Frankie Edgar is just indestructible. Once again, he survives a brutal onslaught of strikes and comes back seemingly from the dead to finish and win this particular fight. It would appear that Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez will be Edgar’s next challenger. There were rumors that Melendez would step inside of the cage following the fight and challenge the winner but that never happened.

In the co-headliner, Jose Aldo successfully defended the UFC featherweight title against Kenny Florian. I wouldn’t call it a bad fight but it certainly wasn’t a great fight. They went the distance with Florian surprising Aldo early but Aldo itching it out for the remaining rounds. Florian tried closing the distance throughout the fight but Aldo quickly stifled those attempts.

I have to say that while Aldo is undefeated since coming to the UFC, he is hardly the fighter that he was in the WEC. Big things were expected out of Aldo when he came over and so far he has been fairly underwhelming. The talent is definitely there but something is not clicking. In his last eight WEC fights, only one went the distance. In the UFC, both fights have gone the distance and he was almost badly by Mark Hominick in the final round at UFC 129. A win is a win, but this is hardly the dominating fighter he was  in the WEC.

Full UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard 3 results…
Mike Massenzio defeated Steve Cantwell via unanimous decision
Aaron Simpson defeated Eric Schafer via unanimous decision
Darren Elkins defeated Tiequan Zhang via unanimous decision
Stipe Miocic defeated Joey Beltran via unanimous decision
Anthony Pettis defeated Jeremy Stephens via split decision
Demian Maia defeated Jorge Santiago via unanimous decision
Joe Lauzon defeated Melvin Guillard via submission – Round 1
Nam Phan defeated Leonard Garcia via unanimous decision
Chael Sonnen defeated Brian Stann via submission – Round 2
Jose Aldo defeated Kenny Florian via unanimous decision to retain the UFC featherweight title
Frankie Edgar defeated Gray Maynard via TKO – Round 4 to retain the UFC lightweight title

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The UFC invades Houston, Texas this weekend with a blockbuster that is stacked from top to bottom. Despite losing possibly one of it’s more intriguing match-ups when the Heavyweight tilt between Dave Herman and Mike Russow was scrapped, the card still offers a number of potential slugfests and back and forth brawls.

The main event features the trilogy fight between Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. The co-main event features Featherweight kingpin and destruction specialist Jose Aldo taking on the newly dieted Kenny Florian. Rounding out the main card is a possible Middleweight number-one contender’s bout between the always trash-talking Chael Sonnen and former US Marine Brian Stann, a rematch featuring Nam Phan and Leonard Garcia and a Lightweight bout between rising contenders in Joe Lauzon and Melvin Guillard.

In my opinion this card is full of excitement from top-to-bottom both in entertainment value (let’s be honest, if a Lightweight bout between Jeremy Stephens and Anthony Pettis is on the undercard, the main card must be stacked!) But it is also full of gambling opportunities. Those of you who have read my previous entries would know that I love a good underdog and there are a number of live underdogs in this one (at least in my opinion) so let’s take a look at some of them. As always all betting lines are the current best available market lines from Best Fight Odds (www.bestfightodds.com)

Preliminary Card (Facebook): Middleweight Bout: Steve Cantwell (-140) vs. Mike Massenzio (+125)

Steve “The Robot” Cantwell is a 24-year-old former Light Heavyweight fighter. He was the last reigning WEC Light Heavyweight Champion, before the promotion folded it’s heavier fighters into the UFC. Cantwell is a Muay Thai fighter who fights out of the One Kick’s Gym in Las Vegas, Nevada. In addition to his solid striking he has a black-belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is perhaps most famous for breaking the arm of UFC newcomer Razak Al-Hassan. Cantwell is making the drop to Middleweight for the first time in his career after a recent skid at 205 pounds. He has a career record of 7-4.

Mike “The Master of Disaster” Massenzio is a 28-year-old fighter from New Jersey. He fights out of the Team Ironhorse MMA Gym in Patterson, New Jersey. Like his opponent his skills lie in his black belt BJJ level skills, backed by decent wrestling and improving Muay Thai skills. He is a former NAGA and Grappler’s Quest Champion. He is returning to the Middleweight division after a failed attempt at 205 pounds. Massenzio has a career record of 12-5.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: This bout sees the former WEC Light Heavyweight champion as a slight favorite. I’m inclined to agree with that, but there is always the chance that Cantwell’s weight-cut goes poorly, or he struggles to make weight. If that’s an issue, he might tire easily and allow Massenzio the chance to get back into the fight. The grappling is likely a wash, with the edge to whoever gets the takedown and Cantwell is likely the better striker, so because of that I’ll pick him. Although, with potential weight cutting problems, I’m not betting on it. Steve Cantwell by Unanimous Decision

Preliminary Card (Facebook): Middleweight Bout: Aaron Simpson (-325) vs. Eric Schafer (+325)

Aaron “A-Train” Simpson is a 37-year-old fighter from Colorado. He is now a member of the Power MMA team in Phoenix, Arizona. Simpson is a wrestler first who is rapidly improving his boxing skills. Simpson was a former NCAA All-American wrestler for Arizona State University. He uses his strong wrestling base to control the pace of his fights and control his opponents, choosing whether to use stand up, or his ground and pound skills. He is entering the fight on a two-fight winning streak. Simpson’s career MMA record is 10-2, with his only losses coming against upper-tier Middleweights like Mark Munoz and Chris Leben.

Eric “Red” Schafer is a 34-year-old fighter who is making his return to the UFC after a brief absence. Schafer’s main strength is a black belt level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Of his 12 career wins, 9 of them have come from Submission. Schafer’s weakness has long been his ineptitude with the striking portion of the game, so he will likely be an underdog in the fight standing. Schafer’s MMA record is 12-5-2.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: Simpson is a huge favorite and it’s not really hard to see why. He possesses better stand up skills and better wrestling, meaning it will be tough for Schafer to get the fight to the ground where he could exploit his grappling advantage. With no ability to get the fight to the ground, Schafer will struggle standing and will take some big punches before finally being overwhelmed late in the second round. If you don’t mind laying big money you could place a small wager on Simpson, but there are other fights I like better, so I’m laying off. Aaron Simpson by 2nd Round TKO

Preliminary Card (Facebook): Featherweight Bout: Zhang Tie Quan (-120) vs. Darren Elkins (+110)

Zhang “The Wolf” Tie Quan is a Chinese fighter who is likely a potential investment for the UFC. The UFC gaining popularity in a country as big as China could be huge business for the company, so some fans have accused the UFC of giving him beneficial match making, but that doesn’t appear to be the case in this close Featherweight bout. Quan is a Sanshou Kickboxer who is also a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He has ten career victories by submission and has finished the fight in all 13 of his career victories, all but one in the first round. The member of Team Quest China and China Top Team holds a record of 13-1.

Darren “The Damage” Elkins is a wrestling based fighter from Hobart, Indiana. He is a member of the Duneland Vale Tudo Gym in Hobart. Elkins holds career victories over a number of notable fighters including Michihiro Omigawa, Duane Ludwig and Pat Curran. Elkins has fairly mediocre stand up and often uses his smothering wrestling to control his opponents on the ground and uses ground and pound to earn rounds on the judge’s scorecards. His professional MMA record if 12-2.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: Elkins is seen by many as a live underdog and money has actually been coming in on him recently, closing the line closer to a Pick’Em contest. However, I think he is being overvalued here. He is a strong wrestler and could possibly blanket his way to a decision, however, his stand up skills aren’t great and his submission defense has been exposed in the past, most notable to Charles Oliveira. Zhang is an excellent grappler and is very crafty on the ground, don’t count out the Chinese grappler getting hold of a limb and forcing a submission. At -120, the line is fairly well set, but Zhang could be good for a bet up to about -130, so I’ll make a small one here. Zhang Tie Quan via Submission in Round Two

Preliminary Card (Facebook): Heavyweight Bout: Joey Beltran (+210) vs. Stipe Miocic (-230)

Joey “The Mexecutioner” Beltran is a Mexican-American fighter from San Diego, California. The 29-year-old fighter is somewhat of a gate-keeper for the Heavyweight division in the UFC and will be welcoming a highly touted prospect to the cage on Saturday night. Beltran is a straight up brawler who is extremely tough. He is somewhat undersized for a Heavyweight, usually weighing in at a soft 240 pounds and standing just over 6′ tall. He is a member of the Alliance MMA gym, where he is continuing to add more levels to his skills, including a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Beltran has a career record of 13-5.

Stipe Miocic is an American fighter of Croatian descent. The 29-year-old is a relative newcomer to the sport of MMA, but is a highly touted prospect who is making his UFC debut. Miocic has a very strong background for MMA, as he was a former NCAA Division 1 wrestler at Cleveland State University. He also won the Golden Gloves Championship as an amateur boxer. He holds an undefeated professional record of 6-0, with all of his wins coming by way of strikes.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: Miocic is a big prospect with a seemingly perfect skill set for MMA. He is a strong wrestler with great technical boxing skills. At 6’4″ and 245 pounds, he is a very large man and will not be overwhelmed by some of the giants that inhabit the UFC’s Heavyweight division. There’s always the chance he chokes because of the “big-stage gitters” but Miocic holds the wrestling and boxing advantage over Beltran. Although Beltran is very durable and tough to finish, there’s no reason to think that the brawler can pull off an upset here. But remember, everyone said the same thing when Beltran faced Rolles Gracie in the latter’s UFC debut. Not interested in laying the huge juice, so I’ll stay away. Stipe Miocic by TKO in Round Three

Preliminary Card (SPIKE TV): Lightweight Bout: Anthony Pettis (-270) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+250)

Anthony “Showtime” Pettis was the final WEC Lightweight champion and rose to instant fame for his now YouTube famous “Showtime Kick” where he scaled the cage to deliver a kick straight to Ben Henderson’s face. He was promised a Lightweight title shot when he entered the UFC, but due to a draw between Edgar and Maynard in their last fight, he chose to fight instead and lost a decision to Clay Guida, in a fight where Guida simply outmuscled and out-wrestled the youngster. Pettis is a 24-year-old fighter from the Roufusport gym in Milwaukee. He has an extensive background in martial arts including a 3rd degree black belt in Taekwan Do and a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Showtime also possesses great stand up skills, with solid Muay Thai fundamentals backed by a great striking coach and loads of creativity. Pettis has a career MMA record of 13-2.

Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens may have one of the worst nicknames in the UFC, but he is no joke. The 25-year-old fighter from Iowa likely has a lifetime employment gig from the UFC due to his fan-friendly fighting style. Fighting as a professional since the age of 16, Stephens is very experienced for his young age and has a strong striking style backed by Muay Thai and Boxing skills. Stephens fights out of the Alliance MMA gym in San Diego, California. Stephens is mostly known for his exciting stand up style and his heavy hands. He holds a career MMA record of 20-6.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: This is actually one of my favorite bets on the card. I think that at +250 Stephens is being significantly undervalued. Pettis (despite being one of my favorite fighters) isn’t likely to try and out-wrestle or grapple with Stephens so throw those advantages out the window. This fight is likely to be a three-round (or shorter) kickboxing contest. Pettis should have the edge here, as he’s quicker and more technically sound, but he’s been hit before and Stephens ends fights when he hits you. Pettis should be the favorite, but not by as much as he is. Getting 2.5-to-1 on Stephens seems like a bit of a trap, but if it is, I’m falling head over heels into it. Jeremy Stephens via TKO in Round Three

Preliminary Card (SPIKE TV): Middleweight Bout: Demian Maia (-260) vs. Jorge Santiago (+255)

Demian Maia is a 33-year-old fighter from Sao Paulo, Brazil. He is one of the world’s best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners who currently competes in MMA. He is also a former Judoka in addition to being a 3rd degree black belt in BJJ. Maia has also recently shown an improvement in his boxing skills, likely attributed to his time spent training with Wanderlei Silva at the Wand Fight Team gym. The former Middleweight Number One Contender holds a career MMA record of 14-3 with 8 wins via Submission.

Jorge “Sandman” Santiago is a Brazilian fighter from Rio de Janeiro. He is a former Sengoku Middleweight Champion. Santiago is a somewhat erratic fighter who is known for his talent potential, but often failing to live up to it. Santiago is also a black belt in BJJ, but is nowhere near the level of grappling when compared to his opponent in this fight. However, he is also a strong Muay Thai fighter, who will possess a standing edge against Maia. Santiago is a member of American Top Team based in Coconut Creek, Florida. He holds an MMA record of 23-9.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: Ugh, I can’t believe I’m actually going to say it, but I like Santiago in this fight. I’ve hemmed and hawed about this one for the majority of the week, but I think he holds a significant stand up edge and should have the ability to at least keep himself out of trouble on the ground. He’ll also likely be the stronger wrestler, mainly from being in the cage against more wrestlers during his career, so I think he may be able to keep the fight standing. If Maia tries to test out his improved striking for too long, he may find himself too far behind on the scorecards to catch back up. But then again, Santiago has a way of losing fights he should probably win. A quick check on my sports betting account says a parlay with Santiago and Stephens will pay $45 on a $5 bet, if you’re feeling lucky take a swing. Jorge Santiago via Unanimous Decision

Main Card (PPV): Lightweight Bout: Melvin Guillard (-340) vs. Joe Lauzon (+310)

Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard is a 28-year-old fighter who is finally living up to all of the hype he had as a young man. The former cast-member of the Ultimate Fighter Season 2 is a kickboxer with strong wrestling and a brown belt in Judo. He trains with Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Guillard has a very fan-friendly style incorporating the speed of his stand up attack with his extremely heavy hands. Guillard enters this fight on a five-fight win streak stopping his last two opponents in the first round. Guillard’s career MMA record stands at 29-8-2 with 1 No Contest.

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Joe “J-Lau” Lauzon is a 27-year old from Brockton, Massachusetts. He is a boxer and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighter who is more known for his excellent grappling skills than his technical boxing skills. Like his opponent Lauzon was also a cast-member of the Ultimate Fighter, although Lauzon was on the fifth season of the show. Of twenty career victories, Lauzon owns 16 by way of Submission. He holds a career record of 20-6.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: This one seems eerily similar to Guillard’s fight against Evan Dunham. Everyone said that if Dunham could just wrestle the fight to the ground he would likely exploit Guillard’s Achilles heel, his inferior grappling skills. In that fight, Dunham was asleep before he ever dragged Guillard to the ground. This fight is much the same, although Dunham tested his stand up a little more than Lauzon is likely going to. At over 3-to-1 there might be a chance that Lauzon snags a limb and earns a submission but it’s more likely that Guillard obliterates him and steamrolls his way towards a Lightweight title shot. Melvin Guillard via TKO (but for those of you interested, that $5 Parlay with the addition of Lauzon now pays out $190….)

Main Card (PPV): Featherweight Bout: Leonard Garcia (+205) vs. Nam Phan (-210)

Leonard “Bad Boy” Garcia is a 32-year-old fighter from Texas. He currently trains with Greg Jackson’s Submission Fighting. He is a boxer who is most well-known for his exciting brawling style which is great for fans, but not always for himself. Garcia is also a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, although he rarely shows it off in fights, choosing instead to slug it out on the feet. Garcia continually moves forward, winging huge hooks and looping punches towards his opponents. When they land they can definitely do damage, unfortunately they don’t always hit their marks. Garcia is 15-7 as a professional but has never been stopped by strikes. Garcia actually holds a win over Phan in a fight that took place nearly a year ago, although the decision was hotly-contested and most people feel that Phan won the fight.

Nam Phan is a California based fighter, who is most known to casual fans from his appearance on The Ultimate Fighter: GSP vs. Koscheck. Phan is a very well-rounded fighter with a number of martial arts backgrounds on his resume. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a black belt in Karate and a black belt in Quyen Dao. Phan also has strong Muay Thai skills with great counter punching ability. Despite struggling in his past two outings, he has shown strong footwork and good counter-punching skills, which will be on full display against a fighter like Garcia. The member of the Ma Du Academy in Garden Grove, California holds a career record of 16-9.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: This fight is just a watch for me. It holds a lot of interest to me as a fan, but nearly none as a bettor. The fact that Garcia won the last fight was absolutely nuts to me and I don’t feel like losing money on that again. Garcia will likely again move forward behind looping punches and a brawling style while Phan will use effective footwork, kicks and counter-punching to be more effective. Plus after losing the last one in controversial fashion, Phan might have the judge’s looking for a reason to balance the score. Nam Phan via Unanimous Decision

Main Card (PPV): Middleweight Bout: Chael Sonnen (-260) vs. Brian Stann (+230)

Chael Sonnen is returning to the UFC after a miraculous loss to Anderson Silva in a fight where he gave it away in the final round, followed by a failed drug test and a slew of personal problems. He has not fought since that loss to Silva in August, 2010. The usual trash-talking expert has remained relatively low-key for this fight, although he has been openly campaigning for a rematch against Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva. Sonnen is a wrestler with a smothering top game, serviceable boxing skills and horrible submission defense. Sonnen is a member of Team Quest Oregon and the former Olympic Freestyle Wrestling Alternate has a career record of 25-11-1.

Brian “All-American” Stann is a former US Marine turned professional fighter. He is one of the best ambassador’s of the UFC which has likely caused the lack of trash-talk from his opponent in this fight. Stann was a struggling Light Heavyweight in danger of being cut from the UFC, but since a drop to Middleweight he has rolled with three straight victories all by way of stoppage and with a win over Sonnen is likely staring at a shot at the Middleweight title. Stann is a kickboxer with good Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Submission wrestling skills. He is a black belt in MCMAP (Marine Corps Martial Arts Program) and is also a member of Jackson’s Submission Fighting camp, where he has excelled under the tutelage of coach Greg Jackson. Stann’s MMA record as a pro is 11-3.

Betting Analysis: I’m going to go ahead and warn you that I hate Chael Sonnen. I think his style is boring, but I did predict him to stand a good shot at defeating Anderson Silva in his last fight. However, I do like Stann in this fight for a couple of reasons. One is the number of distractions and time off in Chael Sonnen’s life. The failed drug test, money laundering case, etc… has to be wearing on him mentally, and any time that a fighter takes more than a year off of fighting, you have to worry about ring rust being an issue. Stann has also shown improved submission skills and takedown defense since his switch to Jackson’s. If he can keep the fight on the feet, he will have the chance of putting his hands all over Sonnen who’s stand up is technically sound but is nowhere near elite level. It’s a long-shot, but I think there’s a bit of value on Stann at +230, so I’ll make a small wager on him. Brian Stann via TKO in Round One (by the way, that $5 parlay with the addition of Stann is now up to $619)

Main Card (PPV): Featherweight Championship Bout: Jose Aldo (-320) vs. Kenny Florian (+300)

Jose “Scarface” Aldo is the reigning and defending UFC Featherweight Champion. From Manaus, Brazil Aldo is a Muay Thai Fighter with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu that is rarely used. Aldo is one of the fastest fighters in the UFC with great hand and foot speed as well as massive KO power and finishing ability. He is a member of the famed Brazilian camp Nova Unaio. Aldo has a number of highlight reel clips on his YouTube channel including stoppage victories over Mike Brown, Cub Swanson and Manny Gamburyan.

Kenny “Ken-Flo” Florian is a long-time UFC fighter from Westwood, Massachusetts. The 35-year-old fighter is making his third attempt at a UFC title, this time at an even lower weight class than the first two times. Florian is a very intelligent fighter who often has excellent game plans entering his fights, but who is known as a bit of a choke-artist, often coming up short in title fights or other big fights. Florian is most notable for his hosting duties on MMA Live as well as his other analyst jobs for MMA. He is perhaps best known to long-time fans for his stint on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter where he actually fought as a Middleweight. Florian has a career record of 15-5.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: A lot of people are making a big deal about the recently released YouTube video of Jose Aldo struggling to make weight for UFC 129 and his subsequent performance at UFC 129 (the video has recently been changed to private.) However, to play that card one has to look across the cage and see a former Middleweight fighter who is making the cut to 145-pounds for only the second time. All of that aside, this is Aldo’s fight to lose hence the heavy favorite status. He holds the stand up edge, the grappling is likely a wash and Aldo is the younger, more athletic fighter. These guys are both finishers, so this fight could end at any time, but even ignoring Florian’s obvious penchant for choking in big fights, it’s not hard to see why Aldo is such a big favorite. Despite the long odds, I think this line is fairly well set and I’m not interested in laying cash down on either fighter, so I’ll just be watching as a fan for this one. As for a prediction, I’ll take, Jose Aldo via TKO Round Three

Main Event (PPV): Lightweight Championship Bout: Frankie Edgar (-125) vs. Gray Maynard (+120)

Frankie “The Answer” Edgar is the reigning and defending UFC Lightweight Champion. He is a 29-year-old fighter from New Jersey. He is a well-rounded fighter, with a number of backgrounds all folded into his MMA game including Wrestling, Boxing, BJJ and Muay Thai. He was an NCAA Division 1 Wrestler at Clarion University of Pennsylvania. He is a member of the Renzo Gracie Combat Team from Toms River, New Jersey. Edgar has only one career loss and it was to Maynard in 2008. In his last fight, he fought to a Split Draw against Maynard, in a fight where he rallied from a severe beating in the first round to outwork his opponent for the rest of the fight. Edgar uses his wrestling to earn well-timed takedowns and control the pace of his bouts. He uses strong footwork and strong technical boxing, backed up by an excellent jab to dart in and out against his opponents and outscore them on the feet.

Gray “The Bully” Maynard is a 32-year-old fighter from Phoenix, Arizona. Maynard is a member of the Xtreme Couture Gym in Las Vegas, Nevada. Like his opponent, Maynard was a former NCAA Division 1 Wrestler, although Maynard spent his collegiate career at Michigan State University. Maynard’s stand up is somewhat raw and unpolished. He often throws winging, loopy punches, which generate a lot of power, but often leave him susceptible to counters from quicker opponents. Maynard has never been defeated in his MMA career, holding a perfect record of 10-0-1. Maynard relies extensively on his wrestling background in his fights, often searching for takedowns and then unleashing ground and pound on his opponents.

Betting Analysis and Prediction: I picked Maynard to win the last fight, and although I was impressed with Edgar’s comeback, I think Maynard simply punched himself out in that first round and never really recovered. Clearly Edgar can take a punch and stay in the fight, so this fight is almost surely destined for the scorecards. Edgar will try to dart in and out to pepper his jabs at Maynard while constantly retreating and searching for openings to counter his slower opponent. However, I still think that Maynard holds the edge in physical strength and wrestling ability. Those are what he’s going to need to rely on if he wants to win this fight and claim the Lightweight Championship. He’s never shown a problem to be a bit of a blanket, which is likely his best path to victory in this fight. At +120 you’re not getting a lot, but this fight should probably be even, so I’m making a small play on Maynard. Gray Maynard via Unanimous Decision

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The gutting of Strikeforce continues and the final blow may be coming sooner than expected. Even with a scheduled title shot on the table, the UFC is ready to sign Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez immediately to the UFC.

This is pretty much the death blow in my opinion to Strikeforce. Remember when Zuffa purchased Strikeforce about seven months ago and everyone said it would be business as usual? Well as we know now that was all lies. Since buying the company, Zuffa has either moved or cut all of Strikeforce’s top draws but one. And according to Dana White, he is next to go.

Dana White dropped a bombshell over the weekend when he announced that plans were underway to move Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez to the UFC immediately. According to White, Melendez would not only move immediately but he could receive the first title shot at the winner of Saturday’s Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard UFC lightweight title fight.

“We do want to bring Gilbert Melendez over and we’re looking at it right now… We’re going to bring Melendez over ASAP. We’re looking to bring him over now.”

“(Getting an immediate title shot is) a possibility. The thing is, that division is so stacked. And usually timing has a lot to do with (who gets the next shot).”

That is big news on a few different levels. One, Melendez has a scheduled fight on the table for December 17 against Jorge Masvidal. If White follows through on his plan, the fight would be scrapped. That would leave the Strikeforce show without a main-event. That would also leave four out of five of Strikeforce’s male championships vacant.

Melendez was the first champion to fight in Strikeforce after the company was purchased by Zuffa. After beating Tatsuya Kawajiri back in April, Melendez immediately called out the UFC lightweight champion and demanded a champion vs. champion fight. He was the first fighter to do that in a public forum following the sale. So it should be of no surprise to anyone that Melendez would welcome the move.

“It’s exciting that the boss definitely wants me over to the UFC, because it’s definitely a good move for me,” Melendez said. “As far as I’m concerned (Jorge) Masvidal is the next guy on my list, and I’m focusing 100-percent on him, so before I get too excited, I’m just focusing on tearing that guy up. But definitely my goal is to be in the UFC, so if we can get that there sooner than later, I’m all for it.”

I think this move is about two things. One of course would be injecting some star power into the lightweight division. It is an extremely talented division, but it is in desperate need of a superstar now that BJ Penn has gone back to welterweight.

Two and probably most important, pulling Melendez from Strikeforce would more or less force Showtime’s hand when it comes to renewing its deal with Strikeforce. The deal coming due and Showtime has the option to renew. With Zuffa moving the UFC programming to Fox, it would be natural to want to move any remaining Strikeforce broadcasts to the network. That won’t happen as long as there is a deal in place with Showtime. With Melendez gone, there isn’t much left for Showtime to promote, hence the deal would likely not be renewed.

I am a big Melendez fan and I think he has big potential to be a household name in the UFC. He has the charisma, the personality, and he fights exciting fights. While I don’t think Edgar/Maynard vs. Melendez is anything that will do big business, it is something that could appeal to hardcore MMA fans in 2012, thus making Melendez an immediate hit in the UFC.

It should also be noted that Dana White said he is also looking into bringing Fabricio Werdum back to the UFC. That one surprised me. I thought there was no way that Werdum would get an opportunity in the UFC after the charade he pulled against Alistair Overeem. Then again, with Frank Mir and Shane Carwin aging and Brock Lesnar’s health in question, it would make sense to bring in a heavyweight with some name recognition.

I also would not be shocked to see Melendez walk into the octagon Saturday night and issue the open challenge directly to the UFC lightweight champion. As a matter of a fact, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t.

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