The Vince Lombardi Trophy is the most coveted award in the most widely seen event throughout the world, the Super Bowl. The fight for the right to appear in Super Bowl XLVI will be a closely, a very closely contested one. Last year’s champs, the Green Bay Packers shocked the NFL betting world and won their 1st Super Bowl Championship under their new regime. But can they go on and repeat?

Other teams such as the New England Patriots have won 3 Super Bowls since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick hooked up and they are looking to add another ring to their collection as their time together runs out and the team becomes older. Another team, the Indianapolis Colts with quite possibly one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, Peyton Manning, have only managed to climb the mountaintop once but are looking to engrave their name on the Lombardi Trophy and the world again, while solidifying their status as a legendary team. Lastly, you have the Pittsburgh Steelers who have flown under the radar, winning two Super Bowls with Ben Rothlisberger (29 years old) and were just one game away from getting a 3rd ring last year.

Let’s take a closer look at contenders who have won the Super Bowl within the last decade and the obstacles that they might face and the betting odds available.

Green Bay Packers – 13/2 (To win the Super Bowl)

The Packers surprised everyone last season and came on strong late in the season with the leadership of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers proved that the legend of Brett Favre is a thing of the past as he came up big, time and time again, in clutch situations against some formidable teams. Green Bay made it into the playoffs with a 10-6 record but that’s where they excelled. The Packers are a very deep team and you have to start with the heart of the defense Clay Matthews. Matthews attained practically every award that was given out. He was a first team all-pro selection, NFC Defensive Player of the Year, Butkus Award Winner, and Super Bowl Champion. The bloodlines run deep as Clay Matthews III puts fear into the eyes of an offense as he’s a young, active football player. Charles Woodson and Nick Collins also made the all-pro second team.

On the offensive side, we all know about Aaron Rodgers and what he can do. Last season, wide receiver Greg Jennings made the pro bowl and caught for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns. Just think about it, the Packers won the Super Bowl and they were without injured tight end Jermichael Finley and running back Ryan Grant. The receiving core is very deep with Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and veteran Donald Driver. If Finley and Grant can come back healthy, there’s no telling how far that this team will go.

New England Patriots (7/1)

Tom Brady has one goal in mind and that’s to be the best quarterback that’s ever played the game. Adding a 4th Super Bowl title to his resume would put him right near the top of the list. Brady has limited time as he turns 34 years old this season and isn’t surrounded by the players that he had in 2008. The Giants pulled off a major upset of the undefeated Patriots, otherwise Brady would be looking for a ring to complete a full set on one hand this season. Tom Brady has always been underestimated. In college, Drew Henson was supposed to be the man at Michigan. In the pros, Brady was drafted very late. He made it a point to prove all of the non-believers wrong and he’s made his point emphatically. RandyMoss would love to re-join the Patriots and Brady but that remains to be seen.

Brady is surrounded by a bunch of blue collar type players that he makes better with his leadership. The Patriots have a grinder at running back in Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis. He’s a 1000 yard rusher and gives New England a solid but not flashy running game. The Patriots picked up a gem in Danny Woodhead. The Jets discarded Woodhead at the end of training camp and the Patriots made him a main cog in their well oiled machine. Woodhead isn’t the most talented player in the world but with the effort that he provides and playing under Brady, Woodhead is a major force on the team. Woodhead ran for 547 yards and 5 TD’s in 14 games. He also caught for 379 yards and 1 TD in making himself a double threat for the Pats.

The Patriots also have a wide array of blue collar receivers (that Brady makes better). Wes Welker is a great possession receiver and led the Patriots in receiving last season with 848 yards and 7 TD’s. Welker spread around the wealth with players such as veteran Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski caught 10 TD’s and the other receivers mentioned all caught for over 500 yards each. What did Tom Brady do? He threw for 3900 yards, 36 TD’s, and 4 INT. That’s about as perfect as a QB can ever play. Look for New England to duke it out with the New York Jets in the AFC East.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10/1)

I wanted to say that the Steelers have accomplished a lot since Ben Rothlisberger and coach Mike Tomlin took the reins in the Steel City. Two Super Bowl Titles and an appearance in last year’s Super Bowl is nothing to take lightly. There have been talks that Rothlisberger held off surgery on an injury that he still has, so be on the lookout for any upcoming news. Rothlisberger doesn’t put up huge numbers, he’s just clutch and can roll out of the pocket and spot the open man. Of course he has longtime superstar Heinz Ward to throw to and Ward is a veteran and a solid receiver that always seems to have a smile on his face. Let’s not forget leading receiver Mike Wallace who caught for 1257 yards and 10 TD’s. Heath Miller is one of the best tight ends in football. Pittsburgh is solid in this area.

In the running back position, the Steelers have one of the best in Rashard Mendenhall but they need Mendenhall to stay healthy because they lack depth. Mendenhall ran for 1273 yards and 12 TD’s.

On the defensive end, the Steelers have 3 players with 100 or more tackles last season. Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior, and James Harrison lead a tough defensive team in the Steel Curtain. Let’s not forget about fan favorite Troy Palomalu and his long locks while picking up 7 interceptions on the season.

I know the numbers seem good but I think that the Steelers were lucky to get home field advantage on the Jets in the AFC Championship game and make it to the Super Bowl. They rolled in the 1st half but the Jets clearly outplayed the Steelers. This is a team with an immature QB (who was suspended the first 4 games of the season) and I think that he’s taken them as far as he can. Green Bay proved it. Pittsburgh will always play a tough game but I would look for a drop off from them in 2011.

Indianapolis Colts (16/1)

This is a team that’s not getting the credit with the lines makers. With all of the injuries that they had to endure last season, they were still able to make it to the playoffs at 10-6 after winning their last 4 games. The championships won’t say it but they have the best pure QB in the game in Peyton Manning. Manning is like a coach on the field. Time is getting short for the connection of Peyton Manning and his lead 1000 plus yard receiver Reggie Wayne. Manning is 35 years old and it’s now or maybe too late. Manning reminds me of all time great Dan Marino. Marino never had great support but had a great arm and the respect of his football team. Marino never won a Super Bowl and thankfully for Peyton, he has. In my estimation, one more Super Bowl Championship for Peyton Manning and people could possibly consider him the best of all time. Although his support hasn’t been great at times and his team has been subjected to a lot of injuries, he needs that 2nd title.

Manning was missing some major pieces last season due to injury. Running back Joseph Addai, tight end Dallas Clark, wide receivers Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez were all out of action due to injury. Indy’s leading rusher was Donald Brown with 497 yards. The fact that the Colts still managed to go 10-6 is a testament to the heart of their players.

Manning was able to incorporate receivers Jacob Tamme and Blair White into the offense. It’s amazing because these aren’t household names. Running back Dominic Rhodes came on late in the season and Addai and Rhodes make a nice combination with the passing of Manning. Peyton threw for 4700 yards last season. The man just finds ways to win.

The Colts will be legitimate contenders. I think that they’re a bargain at 16/1. The Super Bowl will be played at Lukas Oil Stadium (their home) in Indianapolis. If that’s not incentive, I don’t know what is.

New Orleans Saints (16/1)

I must be quite frank about the Saints; I don’t think that they’ve got much of a chance to pick up another title. Drew Brees didn’t look like the accurate, confident passer from the season before. A lot of those throws were inaccurate and it resulted in 22 interceptions. Brees is a very intense player and look for him to improve upon that. The Saints will be tested in week 1 when they face the Packers.

One problem that I see is running back Reggie Bush. He’s not happy with the situation in New Orleans and that’s instant trouble. He’s never lived up to the hype and let’s just say that he’s no Marshall Faulk. The Saints were lucky enough to pickup Mark Ingram in the late 1st round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Expect Ingram to be everything that Bush isn’t.

Marques Colston provides the Saints receiving core with a 1000 plus yard season every year. He’s a consistent and reliable target for Brees. The Saints have some solid receivers in Lance Moore (763 yards, 8 TD’s), Devery Henderson (464 yards, 1 TD), and Robert Meacham (638 yards , 5 TD’s). At tight end, they have the controversial Jeremy Shockey. Shockey has been a mere average tight end in the NFL, never living up to expectations with the New York Giants. He’s learned to tone it down in New Orleans.

In my opinion, the Saints are going to have a tough time competing with teams who aren’t even on this list such as the Eagles, Falcons, and the Giants. The Giants have won a championship fairly recently but they failed to qualify for the playoffs last season and were left off.

The Eagles have a very deep receiving core, led by DeSean Jackson and the quarterbacking of Michael Vick. This team is a legitimate threat to go to the NFC Championship game.

I also think that Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons had a spectacular season in 2010. They just need a little experience. This is a team with a star at every position and shouldn’t be written off. The Falcons finished the season at 13-3 and have acquired 1st round pick Julio Jones in the 1st round of the draft. Add in Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez and you have a Super Bowl contender.

What to look for?

This article is about the teams that are contenders and have won before. The Indianapolis Colts fit the title accurately. Not only that but they’re at a very generous 16/1 with Peyton Manning quarterbacking the team. They’ll be healthy this season and if they can get to the Super Bowl game, it’s curtains for the opponent because they’ll be on their home field. Peyton Manning makes everyone better. He and Reggie Wayne still have a lot left in the tank. I like the Colts in this spot to win the Super Bowl and for Peyton Manning to win his 2nd NFL Championship

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OVERVIEW
All four NFL divisional playoff games this weekend are rematches from the regular season, but perhaps no game is more personal than the one at 4:30 eastern time on Sunday afternoon. It’s not often that two teams come out and, at minimum, express hatred toward the other, but such is the case between the New York Jets and the New England Patriots.

As the football equivalent of the Yanks-Sawx rivalry, the airwaves have been lit up with comments from Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie, with both men giving their take on New England. Cromartie’s was a bit more profane, using a TV-unfriendly word to describe Tom Brady. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick has given the edict to his players to not fight the Jets in the media. After all, the Patriots beat the Jets 45-3 in December, so words may not be needed. Deion Branch put it this way: “They say what they say, we do what we do”.

TEN QUESTIONS

1. Why are the Jets trying to goad the Patriots through the media?
They say that bullies are often afraid and insecure, and thus have to pick on others to raise their self-esteem. The Jets are a little different, however; it’s not usually others that they rake over the coals: it’s themselves. Rex Ryan missed his calling as a cult leader, as Hard Knocks indicated. Though his speeches were often laced with obscenities and righteous anger, you didn’t see one player roll his eyes or scoff. Everyone on the Jets is on the same page, and the players seemingly are willing to maim for their coach. When Ryan said that the Colts game was “personal”, the media picked up on his statement, using it to report Ryan’s losing record against Peyton Manning. That was all the Jets needed to rally late and beat the Colts. Facing the Patriots, Ryan’s stirring the motivational pot, and trying to lead the Jets to a hard-fought win.

2. How did the Jets knock off Indianapolis?
If you had one of the greatest running backs of all time having a resurgent career (LaDainian Tomlinson) and a running back capable of playing as well (Shonn Greene), you’d ride them for as much as you could, right? After a shaky first half that ended with Mark Sanchez throwing a pick into the end zone, the Jets slowly but surely let LT and Greene run amok in the third quarter. In all, the Jets ran 38 times for 169 yards and two scores (both LT’s) on a Colts run defense that has been wrought with injuries. When the Colts took a 16-14 lead with about a minute to go, Mark Sanchez and Braylon Edwards came through on a high pass-turned-great catch, leading to a 32 yard Nick Folk field goal. In addition, the Jets containing defense, other than allowing a 57 yard score, kept Peyton Manning largely in check.

3. Can LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene keep it going vs. New England?
This is where it gets interesting. In 11 games out of 16 this season, the Patriots have allowed 80 or more yards rushing, and 100 or more yards in eight of those games. Two of those games were against the Jets (136 and 152 team yards, respectively). Tomlinson averaged nearly seven yards a carry in their week two meeting, and both men had healthy averages in the game in December where they were blown out (Around five yards a carry for both). It’s highly conceivable that Tomlinson and Greene can dart downfield if offensive coordinator Kyle Schottenheimer follows his template from the Indy game (run heavy in the second half to wear down the defense and keep their star quarterback idle). The Patriots pass defense is also nothing to write home about, so if Sanchez deposits a few safe passes over the middle to his backs, damage can be done.

4. Where did the Jets go wrong on December 6?
It’s hard to say what was more embarrassing for Rex Ryan: the foot fetish allegations involving his wife, or this game. Mark Sanchez and his barrage of mistakes put the Jets into a hole early, and before the first quarter was over, the Patriots had put up 17 points. By halftime, it was 24-3. It seemed like the Jets simply gave up, because Tom Brady proceeded to put up a passing clinic on an unusually lethargic defense. In all, Sanchez threw 3 interceptions, and kicker Nick Folk had a costly field goal miss that led to a BenJarvis Green-Ellis touchdown. What’s most disheartening is that the Jets would have taken over first place in the conference with a win, and then failed so miserably. Rex Ryan remained somewhat upbeat after the game, saying he would play the Patriots again right now if need be. His chance for revenge is here.

5. How did Tom Brady put up such staggering numbers in 2010?
36 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, 3900 yards, 65.9 completion percentage, and all of this was the driving force behind a team that went 14-2 and staked home field advantage for themselves. From what I hear, the Patriots have made their offensive playbook even deeper and more complex, and have accordingly put wide receivers and tight ends around Brady that are capable of learning its complexities. Wes Welker was a given, as one of the brightest receivers in football, but rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have shined in their first year. Also, some rookie named Danny Woodhead was cut by the Jets late in the summer, and immediately was put to use as a “joker” by Bill Belichick, the first player of his type that Brady has worked with. Add the ridding of Randy Moss and the reunion with Deion Branch, and Brady has his most powerful offense yet.

6. How much does the loss of Damien Woody hurt the Jets?
The veteran was the right tackle for an offensive line that jump started LaDainian Tomlinson‘s career after playing for a poor one last year in San Diego. Woody tore his Achilles tendon Saturday night in Indianapolis and found himself on injured reserve. While other top linemen like D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold remain as blockers, the loss of Woody necessitated inserting journeyman Wayne Hunter into the right tackle position. Offensive lines thrive on continuity; putting five Pro Bowlers together who have never been teammates before usually wouldn’t work. Having Hunter protect Mark Sanchez’s sight-side, while starting only five games in two years for the Jets, doesn’t bode well, especially in the loud and intimidating Gillette Stadium. The Patriots may not have the best defense in football, but they’ll see Hunter as a weak spot and exploit it accordingly. On top of that, perhaps LT might be a little less effective.

7. Who does Darrelle Revis cover?
If you don’t think Revis Island is still a death trap, the Bermuda Triangle of pass coverage, ask Reggie Wayne. Wayne could only muster a lone catch for one yard on Saturday night, effectively proving that even Peyton Manning has little in his mental playbook that can lead Wayne out of Revis’ tractor beam. You might think Revis would press Wes Welker, one of the five best receivers in the game, but I somehow doubt that. If anything, if Revis covers Welker, he would split between him and Deion Branch. Revis is at his most dangerous on streaks and post patterns, because he can match just about any receiver’s speed on long-winded sprints. Welker’s more of a complexity over the middle and on crossing routes. Brady finds Welker short and then Wes does the rest. Revis is going to be needed downfield and over the top to keep Brady looking.

8. Which rookie tight end on the Patriots matches up best vs. the Jets?
Rob Gronkowski has had quite the rookie season, notching ten touchdowns, but has been ineffective in both games against the Jets, catching only 2 passes total. Aaron Hernandez had a monster game in week 2, picking up over 100 yards, and was reasonably effective in the December massacre. Gronkowski is more a bulky wide receiver, and plays as a deadly downfield threat, to which the Jets secondary would be more apt to try and conceal. If anything, Gronkowski is a benefit for Hernandez, who’s more traditional of a tight end (albeit slightly undersized). Gronkowski can cause matchup problems that would draw both a linebacker and a safety, creating confusion depending on what route he’s running. This opens up Hernandez over the middle on double tight end sets. Overall, Gronkowski’s opened up routes for a lot of Patriots players, which may explain Brady’s renaissance this season: Rob Gronkowski is the perfect decoy.

9. Will Mark Sanchez pass more?
In the first half of the Wild Card round game, Sanchez and Peyton Manning were mostly stymied. After Sanchez threw the painful interception, he used the third quarter to lick his wounds and let the running backs rip apart the Colts defense. In the fourth, when the Jets had to try and put the game away, Sanchez threw an ill-advised incompletion to Santonio Holmes, which stopped the clock. The Colts would take the lead on a field goal minutes later, putting enormous pressure on Sanchez. He threw a high, barely catchable completion to Braylon Edwards (who’s the best jumping receiver today next to Brandon Marshall) that was the hallmark of the victory drive. Point is, Sanchez has incredible range. He makes stupid mistakes, but he can also make plays. After all, he did lead the Jets to a dominant second half in their win over the Patriots in week 2.

10. Will the verbal bad blood spill over during the game?
The big story surrounding Sunday’s game has been the war of words from both sides, looking like a jacked up version of the Capulets and Montagues. Despite Bill Belichick imposing a latent gag order on his players, imploring them to let their in-game actions do the talking, Wes Welker came out Thursday with subtle remarks about Rex Ryan and the foot fetish scandal. While that’s more innocent than, say, Antonio Cromartie opining about Tom Brady through cursing, this shows that a Patriots’ player felt the need to insult the Jets publically, which will stir the pot more. In the end, I don’t think there’ll be any in-game fighting, because the Jets usually keep their mouths shut on the field. They’re largely a conservative team that tries to control the clock, and they save the acid tongues for the reporters. Maybe we’ll see pushing and shoving, but probably not much more.

ANALYSIS
Expect a pretty big rating for this game, since it’s two big markets, two division rivals, two teams that are fun to watch for different reasons, and you have the pro-wrestling style storyline surrounding it. Like the Ravens-Steelers game, there’s a split season series, and all eyes are on the rubber match. While you’d think the 14-2 Patriots would dominate like they did six weeks ago, I’m of the opposite thought. The Jets will play far more conservative, as they did when they took control of the Colts game early in the second half, and they’re going to shift the tempo away from giving the Patriots any chance to build fast momentum. In an upset, I’m going to take the Jets. Rex Ryan has, again, backed himself into a corner with his mouth, and he’s the type who thrives on that kind of pressure. Jets win it in close fashion.

SCORE: Jets 21, Patriots 17

Justin Henry is the owner and (currently) sole writer of Couch Groove Football. He can be found on Facebook.com and Twitter – http://www.twitter.com/cynicjrh

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The fantasy football regular season is more than halfway over. That is what makes week 7 such a critical waiver wire week. The time is now to start playing the waiver wire and optimize your fantasy pickups for the post season. There are some really intriguing options this week on the waiver wire, some with potential to do some big things when it counts in five weeks.

Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots - Okay if you are like me you see Woodhead out there on the waiver wire every week, you think about it, and then you think, “seriously?” Yes, seriously. It was originally thought when the Patriots signed Woodhead that it would be short term to get some inside info on the New York Jets. Those days are over. Woodhead’s carries have increased over the last three weeks and Tom Brady is always looking to get him involved. I am still not a believer that he is an answer to anyone’s running back troubles, but if you need a bye week fill-in or some insurance, Woodhead is your man.

Max Hall, Arizona Cardinals - Maybe I am jumping on the bandwagon early but I loved what I saw from Max Hall against the New Orleans Saints. Hall immediately had chemistry with Larry Fitzgerald and moved the offense better than anyone else has on the Arizona Cardinals quarterback carousel this season. He has some tough matchups coming up but if you stick with him, he could be a sneaky sleeper come playoff time. Seattle is a pretty good defense so this weekend will really tell us where Max Hall is. I watched the Saints game and I saw a guy with confidence and chemistry and if you are looking for short-term fantasy QB help, Hall could be your man.

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers - Heath Miller is every beer-drinking, girl stalking, suspended quarterback’s best friend. I picked him up in one league two weeks ago, and he is still available in my other one. In Big Ben’s first game back Sunday, Miller had a touchdown and double digits. That isn’t coincidence. Expect more of it this season. Miller is a great pickup for those of you Jermichael Finley or Chris Cooley owners scrambling for help.

Danario Alexander, St Louis Rams - It looks like Alexander will be the wide receiver who benefits most from Mark Clayton’s injury, at least for now. Alexander had a solid game last week and had a touchdown and 72 yards. I am convinced that Sam Bradford is the real deal and a lot of defenses will sleep on him. I am not convinced that Alexander will give you the same kind of numbers that Mark Clayton did, but he is definitely a guy to keep an eye on.

Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers - It is the same story with Mike Tolbert every week. Nobody takes him seriously and every fantasy football analyst predicts that his run is over now that Ryan Matthews is back in the lineup. Well, Tolbert has had a touchdown in every one of his last three games. He only had three carries Sunday but one was a score. He is slowly turning into this year’s LenDale White. I ran with Plumpy a few years back and got great numbers out of him every week. I’m convinced that Tolbert will give you the same results over the course of a season.

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