Fantasy football players are tripping over themselves rushing to the computer this morning to put in a waiver wire claim for Kevin Ogletree. I won’t be one of them as it will take a lot more than one game out of 32 to suddenly convince me that this kid is as good as his numbers.
[adinserter name=”366 right”]I am certainly in the minority today. I am reading blog after blog about how Ogletree is the new breakout star of the fantasy football season…after one game. The Dallas Cowboys wide receiver was targeted 11 times and hauled in 141 yards and two touchdowns. A prime time performance for sure, but excuse me if I proceed with caution.
Immediately fantasy players began tweeting about comparisons to Laurent Robinson. Robinson as the third wide receiver in Dallas last season was arguably the top waiver wire claim at wide receiver. Robinson went on a tear last season, capitalizing on an injured receiving core, with 11 touchdowns from Week 8 on. Is Ogletree this season’s Laurent Robinson?
Not so fast. I have another name for you. Torrey Smith. Torrey Smith was the ultimate waiver wire claim last season after a phenomenal week 3 performance against the St. Louis Rams. Smith broke out for three touchdowns and 152 yards in the air as fantasy players licked their chops at the prospects of grabbing Smith on the waiver wire. Torrey Smith was fantasy gold to struggling owners at wide receiver…or so they thought.
Is Kevin Ogletree this season’s Laurent Robinson or Torrey Smith? Smith is a very talented young receiver, but it became apparent quickly that he benefitted from torching a terrible defense. Robinson on the other hand had a pedigree yet never produced numbers like that in his entire career? So where does Ogletree fit in?
I think the one factor that is being left out of the Ogletree is hype the New York Giants defense. The defense played terrible, with Ogletree eating up Corey Webster and Mike Backer. The Giants also had issues keeping Romo in the pocket. Romo had time to let plays develop, where better defenses would have shut him down or kept him in the pocket. I am convinced at this point that Ogletree was the benefit of a bad secondary as opposed to Ogletree starting a breakout season.
There is also the injury factor in last night’s game. Jason Witten wasn’t 100% and Miles Austin’s hamstring was a big question. Will Ogletree be this productive once Witten and Austin play a few games and get their timing back with Romo? What about DeMarco Murray? Now you have Murray, Austin, Witten, and Bryant to feed. How many opportunities on a weekly basis will Ogletree have?
Plus, Ogletree had his opportunities last year to step up as the third wide receiver. Ogletree is now entering his fourth season with the Cowboys. Keep in mind when Robinson had his breakout season last year with Romo that it was his first with the Cowboys. Ogletree has had four years to show this kind of production on a weekly basis. In four seasons he has had zero touchdowns! It wasn’t as if Robinson had been hanging around the Cowboys for four years and all of the sudden had a big game. He had instant chemistry with Romo. Ogletree in four years has not. Again, excuse me for proceeding with caution on a guy that had one big game after four years with the same system.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ogletree have another two touchdown game at some point. In this offense, it is almost a lock. However, there are way too many wide receivers out there with a proven track record that I would rather stick in my lineup at this point. To get Ogletree you are going to have drop someone at this point that you thought was good enough to draft (barring injury). I am not ready to give up on any of my guys after one week.
[adinserter name=”366 left”]My advice to you is to let someone else waste their waiver wire claim on Ogletree. That is one less person in your league you have to worry about when you go to the wire for a running back or quarterback. If your wide receiver goes down this weekend, I’d certainly take a flyer on him with tempered expectations. Otherwise I’d proceed with caution on this potential waiver wire bust.
My advice. Pass on Olgetree and just pick up the slot receiver playing against the Giants week to week.
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